5 km to Dnipropetrovsk: What pace is Russia advancing at and what objectives does the enemy aim to achieve?

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue their offensive in the Pokrovsk direction of the Donetsk region. According to the map from DeepState, the enemy has advanced towards the village of Udachny and is approximately 5 kilometers away from the Dnipropetrovsk region, whereas last week this distance was about 6.5 kilometers.

Russia's Plans for the Donetsk Region: What is Happening on the Front

"The Russians will keep maneuvering around Pokrovsk to encircle it and cut off logistics. They don't even need to physically reach the roads for this, as they have at least FPV drones that they use to strike. Experience has shown in many places that this is unfortunately effective for them," said Roman Pogorilyi.

He noted that at the same time, the enemy is advancing on Udachny, which due to the terrain could become a "significant stronghold for them to consolidate and accumulate resources" to further their advances. Additionally, the distance from Udachny to the administrative border of the Donetsk region is small, while Russia's overarching goal is to completely seize the region. However, how the situation will develop further remains to be seen, the analyst emphasized.

Threat to the Dnipropetrovsk Region: What are the Advancing Rates of Russia

According to him, it is not possible to discuss the presence of defenses in the Dnipropetrovsk region openly, as this is classified information. However, he is convinced that the enemy has long been aware of everything, as enemy drones are entering the territory of the region. The expert believes that the Russian Armed Forces understand where the defense lines are.

Furthermore, in Zhadanov's opinion, Russia aims to create a buffer zone for the Donetsk and Luhansk regions at the expense of the territory controlled by Ukraine.

"There is a risk of invasion into the region, but the effectiveness of the defense line will be determined by events," he stated.

"It may be easier for the occupiers to advance directly through the Dnipropetrovsk region. I am not saying that Dnipropetrovsk is a top priority for them, but if there is a chance to bypass our fortifications near Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region through such gardens in Dnipropetrovsk, I believe they will do it," Ivan Stupak said.

The question is only how deeply the Russians will penetrate into the Dnipropetrovsk region, whether they can establish a foothold, what fortifications exist there, the nature of the terrain, and the availability of resources for Russia. When asked if the Dnipropetrovsk region is prepared for an enemy attack, Stupak replied that he does not know. There are discussions that preparations are underway, as "something is being built," but sometimes this can happen, particularly in the field.

Oleg Zhadanov noted that the pace of Russia's advance has decreased. In the Pokrovsk direction, the advance now measures hundreds of meters rather than kilometers. Moreover, it concerns only a few positions, not entire populated areas.

For his part, Stupak stated that the front has not collapsed, even though Ukrainian troops are forced to retreat. Each day, the enemy advances by 100-200 meters in various directions, but the progress is "creeping." He believes that the Russian Armed Forces will not stop as long as they have the prerequisites for advancement.

How to Stop Russia on the Front? What Determines the Outcome?

According to Ivan Stupak, the military is currently doing everything possible to halt Russia. However, it all depends on the availability of personnel and their motivation. In particular, the lack of victories, retreats, failures, and insufficient ammunition affects Ukrainian soldiers.

The analyst emphasized that Ukraine sent "the best of the best" to the Kursk region to later "play this card." However, Stupak explained that while they are waiting for this "card," populated areas are being lost in the east.

"If we later calculate the cost of this trump card from the Kursk region, it may turn out to be minimal, or we could even end up in the negative," he is convinced.

Oleg Zhadanov believes that Ukrainians could stop the enemy, but this would require reforms and changes in the command system of the troops.

"As soon as we encounter a problem in the retreat of our troops, it becomes apparent that the command system established by Syrskiy is not functioning. Inaccurate information is reported upwards. Consequently, the General Staff makes a decision that is then sent back down to the troops. The troops are left bewildered, not knowing what to do with these orders," the expert explained.

He also sees a problem in the "decline" of the mobilization system. In his opinion, it was necessary to gradually reform the staffing of the armed forces rather than dismissing all recruiting officers at once. Additionally, there is no information-patriotic work in Ukraine aimed at educating society on the necessity of protecting the state.

"Do you see such work? I don’t see it, and that’s why there is a problem. Everything could have been resolved, but promises remain just promises. Everyone says the right things, but in reality, it turns out that they do not do exactly what is needed," Zhadanov concluded.

Recall that on January 18, a Ukrainian soldier with the call sign "Muchnoi" reported that Russia is advancing in the area of the village of Velyka Novosilka near the border with the Donetsk region. According to him, fighting has begun for the village.

On January 12, the head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Council, Mykola Lukashuk, noted that the region could be under threat from enemy artillery and airstrikes. He emphasized that the frontline has approached the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region.