Without Trump's assistance: who will fund pension payments in Ukraine this year?

Over the past year, Ukrainians received 730 billion UAH in pensions and an additional 180 billion UAH in other social payments, reported Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. "This year, we continue to make all payments on time. Pension indexing will take place on March 1. We are working on introducing support for families with children, basic social assistance, and a funded pension," said the head of government. The Prime Minister also informed that this year there is confirmation of 38.4 billion dollars in budget support. "We are collaborating with the IMF, the European Commission, the World Bank, the EBRD, and other financial institutions," noted Denys Shmyhal.

According to Inna Provotar, head of management accounting and business analysis at OTP Bank, the prospects for receiving assistance from international partners in 2025 look optimistic. She pointed out that the expected amount of assistance is over 38 billion dollars to cover critical non-military budget expenditures. The primary source of these funds is the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration for Ukraine (ERA) mechanism from G7 countries, which provides for 50 billion dollars. Additionally, Inna Provotar mentioned that funding from the IMF has already been confirmed, increasing tranches for Ukraine from 1.8 billion dollars to 2.7 billion dollars.

Thus, thanks to tranches from the EU, IMF, and G7, the issue of the budget deficit should be resolved, and Ukrainians are not expected to face a pause in social payments and pensions, experts believe. However, there is complete uncertainty regarding assistance in 2026. "For the year 2026, there are such risks. There will still be some receipts from frozen Russian assets, but regarding other programs — there is no agreement on them. The closer we get to 2026, the more complicated it will be. We will need to understand how to cover the budget gap," says financial analyst and member of the Ukrainian Society of Financial Analysts Andriy Shevchishin.

Recall that according to analysts from the French newspaper Le Monde, the Ukrainian army cannot hold the front without military assistance from the U.S. for more than six months.