Donald the Conqueror: Will Trump build an empire by acquiring Greenland, and what impact will this have on Ukraine?

The world is gradually getting used to the extravagant antics of the newly elected President of the United States, who has been shocking the globe almost daily with his radical ideas even before officially taking office. However, the Prime Minister of the world's largest island is discussing Greenland's exit from Denmark, and its potential incorporation into the United States is seriously debated by the local political elite and expert-analytical circles in Denmark, the U.S., and other interested countries. Thus, it turns out that Donald Trump has supporters.

Unfreezing the World's Largest Island

Greenland's role is significantly increasing in direct proportion to the volume of melting northern glaciers. The world's largest island, about 80% of which lies above the Arctic Circle and is covered in ice, may find itself at the center of global trade and resource extraction within just a few decades. The European Commission has identified 34 strategically important raw materials, 25 of which are located in Greenland. While most of these deposits are currently under permanent frost, they will become accessible within the lifespan of a single generation.

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Due to the geometric features of the Earth's shape (our planet is not a perfect sphere but flattened at the poles), Greenland, which stretches almost to the North Pole, is projected as the shortest route from Europe to America.

In other words, when the glaciers melt, all maritime routes from Eurasia to America will pass through Greenland's territorial waters. They will be one and a half times shorter than the current logistical routes.

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However, even under the current climate realities, the island's airspace holds strategic importance, as it is optimal for launching missile strikes from Eurasia to America or vice versa. This has led to the establishment of the northernmost U.S. military base in Pituffik (formerly Thule). It is part of the U.S. space infrastructure, as well as its air defense and missile defense systems.

The melting glaciers will trigger radical climate changes throughout the Atlantic, and possibly even across the entire world ocean. Whoever can influence these changes will become the true master of the storm.

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Colonization of Greenland

Despite its considerable potential, Greenland is not a sovereign state but merely an autonomous territory more than 50 times smaller (but significantly more populated) than Denmark.

As previously mentioned, most of Greenland (the name of which paradoxically translates to "green land") is an uninhabited icy desert. Its population is concentrated along a narrow coastal strip in the southern part of the island and numbers less than 60,000 people. Two-thirds of them are Inuit—indigenous inhabitants who have lived there since the Stone Age.

Over a thousand years ago, Vikings established their colonies here, giving the island such a paradoxical name—warm currents created relatively favorable conditions for vegetation in the south of the island, while no one considered what lay further north at that time. However, climate changes forced the Vikings to abandon their colonies after a few centuries. By the 18th century, the Danes arrived.

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In the early 20th century, when the geography of the island became clear (which, by the way, is geographically part of the American continent), a struggle for full control over it and, consequently, the exclusive economic zone in the Atlantic Ocean unfolded between Denmark and Norway. The latter focused on the point that the Vikings, who colonized the island in the Middle Ages, were likely of Norwegian origin. The United States played a role here, as in 1916, they recognized the island as belonging to Denmark, thereby stepping back from their own "Monroe Doctrine," which proclaimed the goal of U.S. foreign policy to expel European colonial empires from the American continent.

The U.S. voice became decisive, and by 1921, the small European kingdom received international recognition for the effective expansion of its territory by several times.

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When Denmark was occupied by Nazi forces in 1940, the island was taken over by American troops, who returned it to Copenhagen after World War II, only to return in 1951. Two years after the creation of NATO, the U.S. and Denmark decided to sign a separate agreement on the defense of Greenland. At that time, this strategically important island was effectively handed over to the control of the American military administration, which made it part of its security system in opposition to the communist bloc.

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It is clear that U.S. military presence in Greenland diminished with the end of the Cold War—and now, in the context of renewed tensions between the West and the South, the planet's northernmost island has once again come into focus.

As for political life, Greenland gained self-government in 1979. Not autonomy, but rather the status of a separate country (not a state) over which the kingdom of Denmark has only limited sovereignty. Thus, Greenland did not join the European Union along with Denmark, as the local fishermen found the fishing regulations practiced in the community unbeneficial (interestingly, this factor became one of the arguments for Brexit).

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The local population has a cool attitude towards the government in Copenhagen, which has been fueled by the aggressive policy of the Danish government towards the assimilation of the Inuit (only about a quarter of the island's population are Danes). In the 1960s, the colonial government even resorted to the forced sterilization of Inuit women. This fact is continually brought up in public memory by supporters of full independence for the island.

Greenland: The Right to Independence

In 2008, the Greenlanders achieved even greater expansion of their self-government by voting for the corresponding changes in a local referendum. Denmark now does not interfere in the island's internal affairs, only concerning itself with its security (which is actually limited to a few coast guard boats and land convoys using dog sleds) and foreign policy. Greenland has two permanent representatives in the Danish parliament. The islanders also have the right to declare a referendum on Greenland's independence if such a need arises.

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This is precisely what the Prime Minister of the country discussed in his New Year's address. He plans to hold the corresponding referendum alongside parliamentary elections in April. Meanwhile, in Copenhagen, there are doubts about the feasibility of several tens of thousands of coastal residents separating almost two and a half million square kilometers of territory. Implicitly suggesting that the Greenlanders might separate the coastal area while the main asset (which is still literally frozen) remains under Copenhagen's control.

Donald Trump's Interest

So what is Donald Trump trying to achieve? First and foremost, his statements are a mega PR stunt from this extravagant politician. Christian Bjorn Felsgaard, senior advisor to the Strategic Initiative Skocroft at the Atlantic Council, believes that the motivation driving the elected president of the U.S. is the desire to secure a place in the history books, which he will undoubtedly accomplish by expanding U.S. territory.

Throughout the campaign, the former showman Trump made numerous promises, many of which are difficult to fulfill. And this is not only about the swift resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war, but also more pressing issues for his voters, such as lowering prices on essential goods. The new American president, who admires dictators, sees the "spectacle" factor as a quality when the "bread" is lacking. Territorial grabs in favor of his country are something the populace has historically been eager to embrace with enthusiasm and forgiving of the leadership's failures in more pressing matters when viewed more rationally.

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To more discerning voters and the American elite, Donald Trump demonstrates the objective advantages of taking control of Greenland. In recent decades, Washington has had enough negative precedents with "stubborn" allies—countries that should have been under U.S. control but frequently began to flirt with American geopolitical competitors in practice. Therefore, real legally formalized control over such an important island is precisely what the U.S. needs on the eve of a Third World War, which seems increasingly likely.

International Law and NATO Allies

And what about international law and obligations towards NATO allies, of which Denmark is one? Legally, the U.S. is unlikely to violate anything. It is doubtful that Washington seriously plans to invade Greenland. Former White House National Security Council chief Alexander Gray noted that anti-Danish sentiments had been growing on the island in recent years. Greenlandic human rights activist Pernille Benjaminson