Engels is on fire, and Russia is losing resources: the real impact of Ukrainian strikes on the country.

Ukraine continues to actively strike strategic targets in Russia. On January 14, the defense forces launched a long-range attack on enemy territory, which may be the most extensive and effective since the full-scale war began.

Missiles and various long-range drones were utilized in the attack. The first target was the "Bryansk Chemical Plant," located 12 km from the regional center. According to Russian sources, the facility produces ammunition and assembles various munitions, including shells for the MLRS "Grad," "Tornado-S," "Smerch," and high-explosive aerial bombs.

The city of Bryansk itself was also targeted, where, according to local authorities, "rocket debris" damaged the "Kremniy El" enterprise, which has been struck before and is considered the second-largest producer of electronics for military purposes in Russia.

However, that night proved to be "explosive" for several enemy targets across various regions of Russia. The Alexin Chemical Combine in the Tula region was also affected. Following drone strikes, a large fire was recorded there. Ukrainian UAVs also targeted ammunition depots for FABs, KABs, and cruise missiles at the "Engels" airbase in the Saratov region. A significant fire was also reported at the Saratov oil refinery.

Attack on Russia: Key Targets of Ukraine

The Ukrainian army is systematically working to gradually eliminate enemy military infrastructure and key elements of Russia's defense capabilities.

According to him, Russia still possesses significant resources to restore damaged facilities, such as ammunition depots and aviation fuel supplies. They may replace the destroyed warehouses, but this diminishes their resources and ability to resume combat operations quickly. The Russian budget for 2025 allocates substantial funds for military actions, so Russia will continue its offensive, but the Ukrainian army is actively working to limit its resource capabilities.

One of Ukraine's significant achievements in these attacks is the development of effective drone systems. This allows for unconventional approaches to striking enemy targets. For instance, guided aerial bombs or mines are suspended from drones, enabling the destruction of strategic enemy assets at minimal cost.

The expert is confident that Russians will hear the "cotton" sound again, and the bitterness will be felt in various corners of the country — it's just a matter of time. However, Moscow is not currently a priority target for Ukrainian attacks.

"Moscow is not just a city; it is a strategic center for management and decision-making. Of course, such facilities are legitimate targets for the Ukrainian Defense Forces. However, it is essential to note that we do not plan to attack civilian facilities, such as cultural or socio-cultural institutions where peaceful people are present. The main issue with Moscow is its complex and dense air defense system; therefore, a strike on Moscow could result in significant losses without achieving substantial results. Hence, it is far more effective to direct strikes at less protected regions of Russia, where the air defense system is not as robust. This allows us to destroy enemy targets with fewer losses for Ukrainian forces," says Seleznev.

The enemy distributes its facilities in such a way that the most important and strategic ones are under special protection, particularly the Crimean Bridge. Deploying several hundred units of our air defense to guarantee the destruction of enemy air defenses, while not achieving primary objectives, seems irrational, according to the expert. However, the enemy faces a dilemma: they have many strategic facilities, but they are beginning to lack the forces for effective air defense.

"The 'thousand cuts' tactic — gradually but consistently defeating weaker targets — appears much more effective than attempts to break through the powerful air defense system of Moscow," concludes the former spokesperson for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

UAF Attacks on Russian Facilities: No Instant Results Expected?

According to him, it is currently much easier to attack refineries in Russia because these facilities are located in more accessible areas. Basic fuel reservoirs are easier to target using drones or other means. Damage to such facilities can lead to secondary fires, and they may burn until completely consumed. However, more fortified targets, such as chemical plants, require more powerful strikes since they have thick walls and substantial ceilings. Missiles are needed to destroy such facilities.

"Attacks like those that occurred on the night of January 14 reduce the capabilities of the Russian military-industrial complex because they must restore the damaged facilities, impacting logistics and supply for the army. However, Russia has considerable reserves and can quickly replace some damaged objects, so it is crucial to continue this tactic," the expert continues.

If the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to strike regularly, Russia will begin to experience significant problems in a few months, believes Hetman. This will particularly affect their capabilities on the front, as supply depots for munitions will be damaged, limiting their resources. However, it is essential to understand that the results will be cumulative, and one should not expect immediate changes, the expert emphasizes.

Fewer KABs and Cruise Missiles: Real Consequences of Ukrainian Attacks on Russia

Military expert Pavel Narozhny notes that all strikes by the Defense Forces on Russian territory already have consequences.

According to the expert, such attacks by the Defense Forces are significant because each ammunition depot represents about a week's worth of operations for Russian aviation. Of course, Russia does not operate from just one airfield, but from several; however, overall, the number of attacks is decreasing. This impacts their logistics, as they need to redirect aircraft and make other decisions.

"Another important point is the destruction of the petroleum products depot in Engels. Tu-160 aircraft are based there. Let me explain how they differ from others. Tu-95 is the main part of the Russian aviation for launching cruise missiles. But these aircraft have already exhausted their resources, and therefore Russia has started using Tu-160. These planes use a special fuel that is not produced at all oil refineries in Russia. This is why strikes on refineries that produce this fuel are crucial," Narozhny continues.

Regarding the consequences, we may see a decrease in the number of cruise missile launches, the expert is confident. This could lead to fewer attacks on Ukraine, but "we cannot accurately calculate how many missiles there would have been if not for these strikes. Of course, we want the attacks to cease entirely, but that is a matter of time."

"Additionally, we are striking other strategic infrastructure, such as ammunition depots and artillery factories. The war is currently, first and foremost, artillery-based, and artillery constitutes the majority of fire strikes — both on our side and on the Russian side. Thus, strikes on artillery factories and the destruction of explosive stockpiles also reduce the effectiveness of enemy attacks," says Narozhny.

Overall, the number of strikes and shots in Russia is decreasing, which is crucial for understanding how the situation is shifting in favor of Ukraine.

"People often say that nothing is changing, that we have lost the war, but that is not true. The situation on the front is gradually changing in our favor, and we can see that. However, a victory will not come in a day," concludes the military expert.

Recall that the Saratov oil refinery, which was struck by the Defense Forces on the night of January 14, lost at least two fuel reservoirs. Satellite images show charred, burned-out areas where giant tanks once stood.