European peacekeepers in Ukraine: what their role will be and where they will be stationed.

On Thursday, December 12, French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk will discuss the deployment of a peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine. This involves 40,000 troops who would be positioned along the demarcation line in the event of a ceasefire in the conflict. However, it remains unclear which countries these troops would come from.

According to media reports citing an anonymous Polish official, the deployment of peacekeepers to any country is the prerogative of the UN, not France or Poland. The official believes that discussions between the two countries on this topic are pointless, and that the only viable option is to address it within NATO.

"This is not the formula that would allow us to make such a decision. The deployment of Polish troops to Ukraine would only make sense within a NATO framework. It is even difficult to discuss this topic before January 20 (the day of the inauguration of the US president, — Ed.)", — he stated.

Peacekeepers in Ukraine: what they will do and where they will be stationed

Military analyst Dmitry Snegirev believes that it is unlikely peacekeepers will be stationed in Ukraine.

He noted that the idea of peacekeepers is not new; it has been raised since 2017 during Poroshenko's presidency, and then attempted to be implemented by Zelensky in 2020. The analyst explained that the first stage involves consultations, the second concerns technical conditions. In other words, the UN mission would go to the site and directly familiarize itself with the military, social, economic, and religious components, which is a complex process. The third stage involves voting in the Security Council on the mission's mandate; however, Russia has veto power. If the enemy is pressured and a vote occurs, the fourth and crucial point is financing, the budget for the peacekeeping operation.

"According to various estimates, if it involves 40,000 troops, the budget could reach up to 15 billion. But the main point is that funding comes from Security Council members. The lion's share will go to the United States — 29%. The US position regarding such costly matters is well-known. The latest statement by Elon Musk about allocating 50 billion to Ukraine... he is quite critical of this, and now they would allocate again," — said the analyst.

However, peacekeeping forces could be positioned along the frontline, as it concerns the separation of the parties. The mission may entail several aspects; if it is about enforcing peace — that is one thing, and if it is about maintaining peace — that is another.

"The main point is that when this question was first raised, Russia categorically denied the participation of NATO countries in the peacekeeping operation. Russia's position is unanimous. There are quite clear statements from Lavrov, Peskov, and others regarding the fact that the deployment of peacekeepers would mean an expansion of NATO's borders at Ukraine's expense," — Snegirev stated.

"Russia has not achieved all of its basic goals set in 2022. It is clear that it will continue to set goals. Russia is aware that Ukraine wants to regain territories, so it will prepare for a new war. To avoid this scenario at least in the coming years until Ukraine joins NATO, for example, if this is stipulated in the conditions of a peace treaty, then the idea of deploying a peacekeeping contingent exists as a working option, a certain small guarantee of security," — said Posternak.

According to him, peacekeepers may be stationed along the frontline, at the Belarusian and Russian borders, where active combat operations are currently not taking place. However, the rights and role of peacekeeping forces will depend on the mission's mandate.

"If it is a UN peacekeeping contingent — those are one set of rules; if it is an OSCE mission — those are different rules. If foreign troops are deployed, it is likely to involve separate agreements between Ukraine and those states. There will be a decision from the Verkhovna Rada regarding this, necessarily with a clear definition of the conditions, principles, circumstances, and the time frame for the placement of foreign troops along the border as a guarantee of security for Ukraine," — emphasized Posternak.

Attack on NATO countries? Russia may attack peacekeepers in Ukraine

In Posternak's opinion, this does not mean that the Russian Federation is not considering the option of attacking these foreign peacekeeping forces. It is difficult to understand what would prevent Russia from doing so, as it has already threatened several NATO countries, carried out sabotage actions, and hostile drones have entered Romanian territory, while missiles have been shot down in Poland.

"Therefore, Russia may consider the scenario of a direct attack on these foreign troops," — stated the political analyst.

Posternak noted that an attack on peacekeepers could be seen as an attack on NATO, which involves a consultation process according to Article 5. However, an attack on Alliance troops does not necessarily mean a collective response. In particular, Article 5 on collective defense provides a certain mechanism that is "quite controversial," according to the political analyst.

"For example, the United States does not find it advisable to invoke a collective response, and then it becomes a rather limited maneuver for NATO countries," — he explained.

Snegirev believes that currently, options for so-called security guarantees for Ukraine are likely being worked out. If this is the case, Ukraine may be offered the introduction of a military contingent from NATO countries as a security guarantee without a UN mandate. Then it would be a completely different story.

"But where is the guarantee that Russia will not start attacking peacekeepers? If considered as a security guarantee option, it would be an effective solution. However, the Ukrainian Constitution prohibits the deployment of military contingents from other countries and the presence of military bases on its territory. This means that the Constitution of Ukraine would have to be amended," — he emphasized.

He stated that if Russians attack the peacekeepers, then Article 5 of the NATO charter on collective security would come into play.

"Even a shot in the direction of a peacekeeper... and the fact of casualties would effectively mean an attack on NATO countries with all consequences for the Russian Federation," — added the military analyst.

Recall that on December 12, French President Emmanuel Macron will arrive in Poland "to discuss negotiations with Zelensky and Trump in Paris." He will meet with Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President Andrzej Duda.

On December 12, Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration Olga Stefanishyna confirmed the readiness to engage in dialogue regarding the acceptance of peacekeepers by Ukraine.