February without power: Will there be electricity outages in cities, and what might the schedules look like?
In February 2025, most regions of Ukraine experienced true winter weather, with temperatures ranging from -1 to -16 degrees Celsius. Consequently, the drop in temperature led to an increase in electricity consumption. The company "Ukrenergo" imposed restrictions on February 10, but only for commercial consumers. However, further drops in temperature across the country and potential strikes by Russian drones on energy infrastructure could heighten the risks of outages for residential consumers.
Electricity and February Frost: Where Outages Will Be Implemented
The risks of outages are rising due to weather conditions and active attacks from the Russian Armed Forces.
According to experts, the likelihood of outages for residential consumers is increasing. "There is a possibility of transitioning to planned restriction schedules of 1-2. This primarily concerns the Eastern and Southeastern regions of Ukraine, where there is the greatest power deficit. There will also be restrictions for businesses," explained the expert.
Andrian Prokip, an energy expert from the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, states that peak consumption has not yet been reached, but if the frosty weather persists in most regions over the coming weeks, the risks of outages will rise sharply. Moreover, outages may occur not only due to an objective shortage of electricity but also due to necessary repairs on lines and substations.
"Last week, we saw the outage schedules on the Left Bank. The issue is that there is a power deficit on the left bank of the Dnipro: the main networks are not designed to transmit such a volume of electricity from the right bank, and all three nuclear power plants are located on the right bank. Electricity needs to be transmitted to the left bank to cover the deficit. Therefore, it may happen that certain regions will have schedules, while neighboring regions will not," says Andrian Prokip.
0 Gas is Needed: How the Situation with Gas Reserves in Ukrainian UGS Affects the Energy System Deficit
The electricity deficit situation is influenced not only by weather and infrastructure damage from enemy strikes but also by the gas levels in underground storage facilities. Experts indicate that there is very little gas left in the UGS, and the current question is how to increase gas injection volumes into the storage. "The level of active gas in UGS is particularly concerning — 9.5% or 2.9 billion cubic meters (according to the official EU website). Such a low figure has never been recorded. For comparison, the EU's UGS filling level is 49%," reported Volodymyr Omelchenko.
The sufficiency of gas in storage must ensure the stable operation of generation units that rely on gas resources.
Naftogaz has refrained from commenting on the gas situation in UGS, although they report on their website that there are enough gas reserves for stable heating season operations.
1 However, the gas issue significantly influences the electricity situation, as part of Ukraine's power generation relies on natural gas. "Regarding natural gas, imports are ongoing, despite assurances from our Naftogaz leaders that supposedly there will be no imports and we will get through the season with our own gas, which we all remember, but imports are happening, and they have been for a long time. To meet existing nominations, imports must increase significantly. Because relying solely on underground storage and domestic production will not be sufficient. It is necessary to substantially increase gas imports," asserts Volodymyr Omelchenko.
Where Are the New Stations: Have 1 GW of New Energy Capacity Been Built in Ukraine?
Meanwhile, another question remains that experts are not too eager to comment on, namely, how many new capacities have been constructed recently. Last summer, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that "Ukraine has a 'clear plan' to build up to 1 GW of gas generation capacity this year." However, there is still no clarity on how many new energy capacities have actually been built in Ukraine throughout 2024.
People's Deputy Yaroslav Zheleznyak, having received a response from NAEC "Ukrenergo" regarding new capacities, reported that last year the country constructed 13% of the planned — 133 MW. However, Ukrenergo's response regarding new energy facilities also mentioned that the indicated volumes and number of installations do not include information about distributed gas generation, which is directly connected to installations and internal consumer networks, providing power to electrical installations without contributing capacity to the Unified Energy System of Ukraine. This suggests that more than the stated 133 MW may have been commissioned, but the exact amount was not disclosed.
2 Meanwhile, experts note that last year, the active pace of implementation was not for distributed generation facilities, but for RES stations, typically solar power plants. However, solar stations are often constructed by businesses to meet their own electricity needs. According to Volodymyr Sokolovskyi, head of the Association of Solar Energy of Ukraine, as he stated in an interview with the "Energy Reform" project, approximately 800 MW of "solar" capacity was added in 2024. This is significantly more than the officially reported distributed gas generation facilities. Unfortunately, the impact of these capacities on the energy system is limited. "Such capacities are important when there is sunlight and during non-peak consumption periods. Therefore, for partially covering the needs of the businesses that build them, solar power plants are very important. However, for all consumers, especially large cities, solar stations do not solve the deficit problem in the energy system," noted Andrian Prokip.