The conclusion of the war with Russia will be one of the most significant moments in Ukraine's history. But what will life be like after the war? The reconstruction of the country, social adaptation, economic challenges, and international cooperation—these issues will confront every Ukrainian.
According to Igor Shvaika, the deputy head of the Recruitment Center of the Territorial Defense Forces of Ukraine and a senior lieutenant, those who have not served in the Armed Forces will find it more challenging in peacetime. He stated that Ukrainians who do not serve in the military will face certain inconveniences. According to him, they will encounter difficulties in obtaining loans and defending dissertations. Additionally, doctors cannot lead medical institutions if they have not served in the Armed Forces.
Shvaika believes that society will be militarized, as threats will persist, even after a victory over the enemies. Due to this militarization, certain changes in social life are likely, which need to be considered already.
Moreover, Russian propaganda is already beginning to utilize these ideas, which speaks volumes. The concern is that such ideas confirm the existence of contradictions between those who fight and those who remain in the rear.
After the active phase of the war ends, there will likely be a significant divide between those who were on the front lines and those who did not rush there. This phenomenon is known and was noticeable even after World War II. During that time, military personnel often had a critical, and at times aggressive, attitude toward those who stayed in the rear. Terms like "rear rat" emerged. Such sentiments may manifest now, believes political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko.
In his opinion, a major issue will arise with the adaptation of veterans and combat participants to peaceful life. The reason for this will not be employment, as there is currently a labor shortage in Ukraine, and job difficulties are not anticipated. The real challenge will be returning to normal civilian life.
Some families have not seen each other for years, leading to divorces. Restoring family life will not be an easy task. Additionally, there is the problem of psychological stress experienced by many during the war. For some, returning to normal relationships with society may be difficult, especially if their views on violence have changed. Such issues may also carry over into peaceful life, according to the expert.
"These difficulties are characteristic of any war. For example, my colleagues have reported that the Poles are already preparing for the possible arrival of thousands of veterans from the conflict zone. They anticipate that these individuals will face social and psychological challenges when adapting to peaceful life. Modern warfare differs in scale and intensity from anything that occurred before 2014 or even 2022. This introduces new challenges that society will have to address," Fesenko continues.
The question of the model of life and development for Ukraine after the war will become one of the key topics in future elections, emphasizes the political scientist. Among the discussed ideas is the transformation of Ukraine into a "new Israel" with a strong defense system. Special attention will be paid to developing territorial defense, which has already proven its effectiveness, even in its initial state in 2022. This area requires further expansion and improvement.
"An initiative for general military training will be considered separately. The idea that all citizens will undergo basic military training will likely gain support among the military and those who feel threatened by a new war with Russia. However, this proposal will spark debates, and its practical implementation will depend on legislative decisions," says Fesenko.
The economic development model will pose an even more complex challenge. Ukraine will have to maintain and modernize its military-industrial complex, which is actively developing during the war. A priority will be the creation of modern weapons to deter potential new Russian aggression. Simultaneously, the civilian sector will need development, which will require significant financial resources.
"The main question is where to find the money? Currently, a significant portion of the budget is funded by international partners, who support both the army and arms purchases. After the war, the volume of such assistance may significantly decrease. One solution could be joint arms production and export, but this will require investments," the political scientist continues.
A model of a militarized state is also being discussed, which may be supported by former military personnel and some politicians. However, this model will require substantial costs, and finding a balance between defense needs and the restoration of peaceful life will be extremely challenging, believes the expert. Maintaining a powerful army at even 5% of GDP will pose a serious financial challenge.
Balancing militarization, economic recovery, and social development will be one of the key tasks for post-war Ukraine, according to the political scientist.
"The post-war development model for Ukraine will become a field for significant social and political contradictions. On one hand, there will be a considerable segment of society eager to maintain a militarized economy to keep the country prepared for a new war. This group will support the idea of mass military training, drawing on the experiences of countries with high levels of defense readiness.
On the other hand, another part of the population will seek to distance themselves from the horrors of war, restore normal peaceful life, and enjoy tranquility. This will create a contrast and social tension similar to what Europe experienced in the 1920s after World War I," Fesenko continues.
In addition to this, the country will face significant social problems. Currently, citizens perceive high tariffs, taxes, and a declining standard of living as consequences of the war. However, after its conclusion, these factors will generate increasing dissatisfaction directed at the authorities. Regardless of who becomes president, expectations for change will be high, but the initial results may lead to disappointment and criticism.
"The reconstruction of the country will be a challenging process requiring overcoming numerous challenges. One of the key issues will be the adaptation of society to peaceful life and addressing questions of social justice, which will be exacerbated by contradictions among various groups. The main challenge for the authorities will be to find a balance between militarization and socio-economic development, as well as to build trust among citizens who seek stability, reforms, and the restoration of normal life," says the expert.
Fesenko believes that what Igor Shvaika spoke about is the understanding of social justice from a military perspective. A segment of society, especially the military, may feel that those who did not fight did not fulfill their duty to the country and should face certain restrictions in rights. Although such a position is unlikely to gain widespread support, it will become a source of social tension.
It is expected that contradictions will arise between groups of the population that actively participated in the war, those who stayed in Ukraine, and those who went abroad. Some social groups may express grievances in the form of, "Where were you during the war?" creating a divide in society. Not all who left will return, but even those who do may face integration challenges, according to the political scientist.
In his view, the choice of an economic development model will be critically important after the war. However, expectations for a rapid recovery of living standards should be tempered. The disparities in the population's wealth that existed earlier will become even more pronounced.
"The political environment will also undergo changes. After the war, political life is expected to become more active, which is already evident in the pre-election activity. At the same time, contradictions will arise between supporters of a militarized development model focused on preparing for potential new conflicts and those who seek a peaceful model that maintains defense capabilities without militarizing society," says Fesenko.
After the war, people will strive to return to normal life: to travel, relax, and enjoy peace. This instinct to restore normalcy will serve as a powerful motivator for many. However, at the same time, revanchist sentiments may emerge among certain groups, which could become a factor in political instability.
"Thus, the post-war period will require society and the authorities to adopt a balanced approach to addressing economic, social, and political issues. The main task will be to achieve a balance between defense capabilities and peaceful development, to avoid conflicts, and to create conditions for the gradual recovery of the country," concludes the political scientist.