End of mobilization—end of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? Exploring ways to sustain the military after the war concludes.

The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, stated that after the war concludes, the country will need an army of at least 800,000 servicemen. This is a strategic necessity for ensuring security, given the threat from Russia. However, a key question arises: where will such a large number of soldiers come from? After a ceasefire and the lifting of martial law, mobilization should cease, and demobilization should begin.

Previously, Zelensky mentioned that as of January 2025, the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is approximately 880,000 personnel.

Lifting Martial Law — The End of Mobilization?

Once martial law is lifted, mobilization will end. This opinion was expressed by military expert Oleg Zhdanov.

However, Fedor Venislavsky, a member of the "Servant of the People" party and a member of the committee on national security, defense, and intelligence, noted that even if an agreement for a ceasefire is reached between Ukraine and Russia, martial law in the country will remain in effect. According to him, such an agreement does not guarantee the withdrawal of Russian troops from temporarily occupied territories or the elimination of threats that led to the introduction of martial law.

Venislavsky explained that the lifting of martial law is only possible after all threats defined by the law on the legal regime of martial law are eliminated, and Ukraine must receive security guarantees that would make further attacks from the Russian Federation impossible.

He emphasized that permission to leave the country and demobilization are directly dependent on the lifting of martial law. However, the decision on this matter will be made by the President of Ukraine.

"Freedom of movement and the ability to leave the country are solely linked to the continuation or non-extension of martial law. At a minimum, a peace agreement must be signed that complies with international law, the interests of Ukraine, and the Constitution," the MP explained.

At the same time, lawyer Rostislav Kravets noted that there are no provisions in Ukrainian legislation that explicitly prohibit citizens from leaving the country. In his opinion, the actions of the State Border Guard Service in this matter may be interpreted as an abuse of power.

According to Kravets, demobilization can be completed in one day if the appropriate political decision is made.

"If conscripts can be discharged in a month, then why can't contract soldiers who do not wish to continue their service be discharged in one day?" the lawyer summarized.

If we assume that martial law is lifted and the mobilization process is immediately halted while demobilization begins, how can the necessary number of soldiers, as mentioned by Volodymyr Zelensky in the context of security guarantees, be retained?

Mobilization After the War: Where to Find Soldiers?

According to Oleg Zhdanov, recruiting the required number of people into the army will not be a problem. The most important thing is to establish the right policies that motivate people to serve and to create a societal perception of the necessity to defend their country. For example, in the United States, there are constantly about 350,000-400,000 military personnel, and every year the terms of contracts are reviewed to improve their financial and social support. This includes free education for military children, benefits for relatives, and more.

"We need to change the informational mindset in society, showing the importance of military service. Social initiatives and advertising that inspire people to become part of the army should be created. Moreover, patriotic education should be initiated. After that, we need to motivate people to enroll in military educational institutions or sign contracts. Look at how Israel has built a system where the national idea is to protect and live. For them, receiving a draft notice is a celebration, even for girls, because serving in the army is prestigious. This is a state policy," the military expert explains.

However, there are concerns that after the war, due to problems within the system, it will be difficult to recruit 800,000 soldiers. Zhdanov believes this could indeed become a problem if issues of corruption and military support are not resolved. If the management system is changed, professional commanders are recruited, and corruption is eliminated, then recruiting soldiers will become easier. According to the expert, changes in state policy are crucial. If these steps are taken, the army will not only be formed but will also remain strong.

"If the state takes the right steps and creates conditions, even those who return after the lifting of martial law will sign contracts. Those who are well settled and registered abroad may not return and choose to stay there. By the way, Europe will support the protection of our citizens because they are hardworking. And those who return, who have not found refuge or return for other reasons, I wouldn’t be surprised if many among them also sign contracts. Because after the war, finding a job with good pay will be challenging. The army should offer salaries above the average level. This could serve as a strong motivation," Zhdanov is confident.

Will Ukraine Start Fighting for Its Soldiers After the War?

First and foremost, according to Aleksandr Musienko, head of the Center for Military-Legal Studies and a serviceman of the Territorial Defense Forces of Ukraine, it is crucial to understand that after the war concludes, Ukrainians will still face challenges and dangers, as Russia, unfortunately, has not disappeared as a subject capable of conducting neo-imperial aggressive policies. This means that a repeat of the Russian invasion is possible. One of the elements of security guarantees for Ukraine is undoubtedly strong Armed Forces. Therefore, the army must indeed be large.

According to the expert, these are the main aspects of attracting people to military service. Funding is also an important issue. He stated that Ukrainians need to understand that under any circumstances, we will live in realities where defense and security expenditures will account for 5 to 10% of GDP. These funds will be allocated for maintaining the Armed Forces.

"We also need to collaborate with our partners to receive assistance for supporting the army. Therefore, funding for defense forces is one of the guarantees of security," Musienko continues.

He believes that even after martial law is lifted and borders are opened, not everyone will want to leave the country, but there will undoubtedly be an outflow of people. The Ukrainian authorities will need to enter into a conditional competition and fight to attract as many people as possible to the Armed Forces. Offering better service conditions and providing certain guarantees will be essential.