Peacekeepers won’t help: what Ukraine needs to deter Russia’s aggression.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Vladimir Zelensky emphasized the necessity of sending at least 200,000 peacekeepers to Ukraine to prevent a new invasion by the Russian Armed Forces.

"From all Europeans? 200,000 is the minimum. It's the minimum; otherwise, it means nothing," said Vladimir Zelensky.

This number of troops is roughly equivalent to the size of the French army, which is the largest in Europe. While on paper, European NATO allies have 1.9 million soldiers to counter Russia, in reality, EU countries will struggle to deploy more than 300,000 fighters in the conflict zone.

200,000 Peacekeepers: What Will They Do in Ukraine

"It should be noted that at the first stage, this number could be higher, and then there may be certain adjustments, including a reduction in the number of peacekeepers. In my opinion, the President of Ukraine was trying to raise the stakes as much as possible; he announced some upper limit, perhaps hoping that if this issue were indeed discussed, it could be lowered to a more or less acceptable level," said Igor Reiterovich.

According to him, given the current front line, tens of thousands of soldiers are needed since it cannot be a "police mission" merely patrolling a hypothetical future demarcation line. Instead, it is essential to monitor everything happening there.

There are several options for what peacekeepers will be engaged in while in Ukraine, the political scientist continues. In particular, this could involve their deployment along the demarcation line in specific camps, overseeing operations, and maintaining service. He reminded that earlier media reported a scenario where support points would be established along the demarcation line, but most of the troops would be stationed further back while soldiers would be prepared for deployment in case of aggression.

"Most likely, this could resemble the situation along the demarcation line between North and South Korea. Troops there are deployed, located in fortified positions, and ready to repel attacks from the other side," he is convinced.

Reiterovich stated that the presence of peacekeepers in Ukraine should significantly reduce the risk of escalation. Thus, Russia should understand that an attack on Ukraine would be regarded as an attack on the countries that sent the peacekeepers.

"According to all standards of peacekeeping missions, they are introduced to separate the warring parties and act as a kind of shield that prevents any provocations," said the political scientist.

In the presence of NATO peacekeepers, the risk of further escalation becomes nearly zero, he noted, but only if Putin does not decide to go to war with the Alliance.

The political scientist noted that potentially any countries could send peacekeepers to Ukraine if it is a mission under the UN's auspices. However, Ukraine maintains the position that peacekeepers should only come from countries that did not support Russia in its aggression and had no partnership relations with it. Thus, this concerns countries from the EU and NATO.

"And, frankly, another alternative is unlikely to be realized because Ukraine will not agree to it. Although Russia will try to impose some Belarusian, Chinese, or others if this issue starts to be discussed, that option will not work. These must be countries that understand who the aggressor is and who the victim is, the country that was attacked. Ideally, these are the British, Germans, French, Spaniards, and Portuguese. Turks could also be included as NATO members. As of today, only a few countries have expressed potential interest in such a mission, and all of these countries are NATO members," explained Reiterovich.

There Will Be No Peace Treaty or Peacekeepers: What Will Stop Russia

Military analyst and deputy director of the Ukrainian "Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies," Mikhail Samus is convinced that Ukraine will not receive any peacekeepers. There must be consent from both sides for their deployment. In particular, peacekeepers can be sent by those countries or organizations that take responsibility and sign an appropriate agreement with Ukraine and Russia for the introduction of troops into the relevant areas.

He noted that there is a desire from the Ukrainian side regarding peacekeepers and their numbers, while Russia opposes this. According to the analyst, the only guarantee of security for Ukraine and the prevention of further escalation is the armament of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This involves creating a missile and aviation shield. The size of the personnel is not the main issue since the key question is the strength of deterrence. There should be a missile potential that, for example, would allow the destruction of several hundred targets in Russia within an hour.

"If Russia resumes combat actions, Ukraine will carry out a missile strike that disables most important facilities on Russian territory, at least in the European part. This is feasible, and Ukraine is moving towards this very quickly," explained Samus.

According to him, for this, Ukraine has cruise missiles, and their production should be increased to tens of thousands per year, while ballistic missiles should be produced in the hundreds annually. Additionally, drone and aviation capabilities should continually grow.

"Ukraine must have an advantage over Russia in aviation. If that happens, then it doesn't matter how many peacekeepers we have here or if there are none at all. A monitoring mission could be established to only oversee the ceasefire violations," he stated.

The analyst believes that there will be no peace treaties signed between Ukraine and Russia. Instead, there will only be a ceasefire agreement, after which a long diplomatic process will begin until Putin dies. In the new conditions with a new Russian regime, or several if Russia collapses, the issue of the liberation of Ukrainian territory will be addressed.

Recall that on January 21, President Vladimir Zelensky, during his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, stated that Ukraine, in its plans to end the war with Russia, adheres to peaceful diplomacy. However, it is crucial what that will entail.

On January 9, Vladimir Zelensky noted that the proposal from partners to deploy foreign contingents in Ukraine is one of the best tools to force Russia to peace.