Thursday20 February 2025
telegraf.org.ua

Youth may leave, but retirees will return: what lies ahead for Ukraine post-war, and will it be possible to rebuild the nation?

The war is impacting the demographic situation in Ukraine. While some individuals are fleeing abroad due to the ongoing conflict, migration is unlikely to cease even after the active phase comes to an end. Focus explores what Ukraine's population will look like after victory and whether a catastrophe should be anticipated.
После войны молодежь покинет страну, а пенсионеры вернутся: какова судьба Украины и возможно ли восстановление?

Opening of Borders: Who Will Leave and Who Will Return

"When we start analyzing the demographic indicators of those who want to leave and those who want to stay, the situation, in my opinion, is truly catastrophic. If we take the youth category, especially those aged 18 to 23, up to 50% of young people want to leave," said Pavel Rozenko.

He noted that up to 90% of the older generation, people over 50, will remain in Ukraine. The policy of European countries is aimed at keeping and supporting those who work, students, and families with children. Instead, they aim to return those who are on social assistance and older individuals.

"In fact, Ukraine will turn into a country of retirees, where there will be almost no working-age population. And that is why I find it very upsetting that the authorities do not talk seriously about this issue," he stated.

According to him, the demographic strategy developed by the government and presented six months ago "remains on paper." In his opinion, the demographic strategy is ineffective, as it is merely a "set of slogans" written with donor funds. He does not see a state strategy regarding what to do under the current conditions and after the borders open.

"My vision is that 70% will not return to Ukraine, because, unfortunately, I am a skeptic; I do not believe that we will experience rapid economic growth. If this happens, people will naturally decide to stay abroad. Men whose families are abroad will try to join them. People from small towns, if they see they cannot earn enough money to support their families, will also gather and go abroad to earn money," said Vasily Voskoboynik.

He believes the biggest challenges facing the state will be the return of Ukrainians, reducing labor migration from Ukraine, and attracting talented foreigners who could work in Ukraine. To address these issues, the All-Ukrainian Association of International Employment Companies, with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation, is implementing the "Vision-2033" project: preserving and developing Ukraine's labor resources in the coming decade.

He thinks that after the borders open, the majority of people will still remain in Ukraine; however, the departure of active, hardworking individuals, those who can create something, will deal a "serious blow to the country's prospects."

How to Bring Back Migrants and Retain Citizens in Ukraine?

Rozenko noted that a comprehensive state-level strategy is needed, which will consider many points—such as whom Ukraine wants to bring back and attract to the economy, in which sectors the economy will develop, what enterprises will be created, what investments will be attracted, and which specialists are being trained today. However, this is currently absent.

He clarified that a young person aged 17–20, who is entering or finishing higher education, does not understand what will happen next. People see that there are no prospects in Ukraine, and therefore need to go abroad, as salaries are higher and living conditions are better there. Meanwhile, Ukraine offers nothing, said Pavel Rozenko. Instead, there are only problems with leaving the country, internal restrictions, misunderstandings regarding mobilization, resulting in "instability, unpredictability, and confusion."

According to Rozenko, the state should train specialists to ensure it is clear where they will work immediately. Such a long-term program is just one element of a state demographic strategy. Additionally, Ukraine will need to attract specialists from abroad for economic development. However, it is currently unclear who these people will be, which sectors need specialists, and so on.

"We hear a lot of beautiful rhetoric from our officials and high-ranking officials about how once the war ends, investments will flow into Ukraine, and an economic boom will begin," he said, noting that this is not the case.

After all, any investor first asks about the ease of doing business, bureaucracy, judicial decisions, etc., and then about the people who will work at their enterprise. Yes, investments are not just money; they are human capital.

"If an investor does not see people here who will work at their enterprise and implement their investments, then no one will come here. Therefore, we need to start working with potential investors today; we need to train personnel for those enterprises that may be created after the war. But no one is addressing this issue," the expert concluded.

Voskoboynik is convinced that it is important for victory to be achieved. The end of hostilities will be the main factor that ensures the safety of people in Ukraine and will be the first step for citizens to start returning.

Additionally, certain factors will influence people's desire to return home or stay abroad, namely the availability of housing, well-paid jobs, and infrastructure that helps maintain normal living conditions.

"People will compare what they already have in Poland, the Czech Republic, or Germany with what they will have when they return home," he explained.

In January, the media reported that some European countries may face economic problems due to the return of Ukrainian migrants to their homeland.