Frost and light: when will power outages begin and how long will they last?

Electricity consumption in Ukraine continues to rise. As reported by the company "Ukrenergo," the reason is the onset of frosty weather across the entire territory of Ukraine and the traditional increase in consumption at the beginning of the work week. "Currently, the Ukrainian energy system is still recovering from the mass missile and drone attacks by Russia. Emergency recovery work at energy facilities is ongoing. To balance the energy system, power restriction schedules are being implemented for industry and businesses today," — the operator's statement reads.

According to energy expert from the Ukrainian Institute for the Future Andrian Prokopa, if frosty weather persists in most regions over the coming weeks, the risks of power outages for residential consumers will rapidly increase. Furthermore, outages may occur not only due to an objective electricity deficit but also due to the need for repairs on lines and substations.

He also warned that the situation could change quickly if the Russian Armed Forces intensify strikes on energy infrastructure. "Frosty weather could prompt the enemy to increase the intensity of shelling, raising the risks of outages. Additionally, during cold snaps, there is always a slight risk of accidents. Therefore, we must be prepared for possible power outage schedules in different regions," — says Andrian Prokipa.

Another significant factor that will influence potential power outages is the situation with gas reserves. "The level of active gas in underground gas storage facilities is particularly concerning — at 9.5% or 2.9 billion cubic meters. Such a low figure has never been recorded before," — says Vladimir Omelchenko.

It is worth noting that gas reserves have a crucial impact on the electricity situation, as part of Ukraine's energy generation capacities operates on natural gas. "Regarding natural gas, imports are ongoing, despite assurances from our Naftogaz leaders that there will be no imports, and that we will get through the season on our own gas, as we remember, but imports are happening, and they have been for quite a while. To meet existing nominations, imports must significantly increase. Because relying solely on underground storage and domestic production will not be sufficient. We need to significantly boost gas imports," — emphasizes Vladimir Omelchenko.