A "super-ATO" will commence: Alexander Karpyuk shared with Focus what will happen after the war is "frozen."

The question of a potential "freeze" of the war along the frontline, which is currently being actively discussed by international partners, raises numerous questions regarding the real implications of such a scenario for Ukraine.

According to Ukrainian Armed Forces serviceman and aerial reconnaissance officer Alexander Karpuk, call sign Serg Marco, a "freeze" of the war would lead to a situation reminiscent of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO). It would not bring stability but rather create a new level of conflict — a "super ATO."

The military points out that during the ATO, there was a ceasefire regime with restrictions on calibers — a ban on the use of heavy artillery, with only 82mm mortars allowed. Under these conditions, snipers and sabotage-reconnaissance groups worked to improve tactical positions, eliminating the enemy, breaching defense lines, and fortifying their positions. However, with advancements in technology, the situation has changed: one sniper can no longer compete with a drone operator.

"I believe that even if the conflict is temporarily frozen, we will still face numerous skirmishes. The Russians, like us, do not trust each other. Everyone who experienced the ATO remembers that neither side left any chance for a 'de-escalation' or peace. The same will happen now. More aggressively minded fighters, armed with new technologies, will seek to eliminate the enemy's personnel," says the aerial reconnaissance officer.

Alexander Karpuk does not believe in the success of peacekeeping missions, such as those from France or others attempting to mediate in this war. If the warring parties withdraw a few kilometers, as planned, neither side will adhere to this regime. The gray zone might only serve as a place for pauses, not for stability. There are doubts about the possibility of a long-term ceasefire — a single flare-up would be enough to initiate a new phase of hostilities.

Nevertheless, the end of the war must occur through diplomatic means.

"Currently, about 600,000 Russian soldiers are fighting, but this is not the entirety of the Russian army; it is specifically a strike group. Thus, they have certain advantages in numbers, although the situation is complicated by the presence of their rear units in Russia, which also wield influence. Technically, it is impossible to eliminate 600,000 Russians, considering the current mobilization and the amount of weaponry. They, in turn, are also unable to fulfill strategic objectives. For example, they cannot capture Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, or other cities, which means that even tactical missions are becoming challenging for them," explains the military officer.

Therefore, when both sides cannot achieve a military victory, the only option left is the diplomatic path. The status quo, negotiations, and seeking solutions through diplomacy are what Karpuk believes in.

"But my task, as a soldier, is to eliminate the enemy. And I do what I am told. What is thought at the strategic level is a question for politicians. I believe that prior to 2023, the situation was more favorable for operational breakthroughs when we had the necessary amount of weapons and resources. But now, after three years of war, it is much more difficult to achieve this. Russia had time to restore its forces, and we were not given the opportunity to secure a decisive victory at the beginning of the conflict," concludes the aerial reconnaissance officer.

"The most challenging winter, the defense of Pokrovsk, and the threat to Dnipro" — the full interview with aerial reconnaissance officer Alexander Karpuk.

As a reminder, according to estimates from Washington analysts, Russian military forces will need to conduct combat operations for at least another 83 years to capture the remaining 80% of Ukrainian territory.