"Only 23 million of us may remain": Insights on post-war Ukraine's future and how to preserve society, according to a sociologist.

After the war concludes, Ukraine will face numerous challenges, but it will also gain opportunities for radical transformations. The country's development will depend on various factors, including political stability, international support, economic conditions, social unity, and the level of trust in the government.

First and foremost, the sociologist notes that the future of life in Ukraine after the active phase of the war largely hinges on when the war will end.

Once the war concludes, Ukraine will face a difficult choice that will determine its future. Amid a conflict that has lasted nearly three years, the social issues anticipated after its conclusion have already become pressing. New social groups are emerging: military personnel, veterans, individuals with disabilities due to the war, refugees who have found shelter abroad, internally displaced persons, residents of occupied territories, and those who have returned after liberation. Each of these groups has unique needs, and their adaptation will pose a significant challenge for post-war Ukraine, according to the sociologist.

Paniotto suggests considering two scenarios for future developments: the establishment of a militarized civil society and a democratic civil society.

Life After the War: Militarized Civil Society

This scenario is based on the dominant role of the military in the social structure of the country, where participation in combat or training becomes the primary criterion for accessing rights and privileges. Divisions between military and civilian populations will form, potentially leading to discrimination against those who were not directly involved in the war. Veterans and military personnel will become the central elite, with state support focused on their needs. This context presents significant risks.

"Estimates suggest that of the 37.5 million people who lived in Ukraine before the war, around 29 million remain in the controlled territory. An additional 8 million are either abroad or in occupied territories. If a militarized civil approach is adopted, it will complicate the return of refugees who may not see any prospects in a country with a discriminatory system. Moreover, about 20% of those who remain (approximately 6 million) express a desire to emigrate, which could lead to a severe demographic crisis. We may be left with fewer than 23-25 million people, which critically affects both defense capabilities and the potential for the country’s recovery. We will have to rely on a high level of immigration, encouraging labor from impoverished Asian and African countries (this will also be necessary in the second scenario, but on a smaller scale). This creates many additional problems," Paniotto explains.

This scenario also poses challenges for Ukraine's integration into the European Union. Meeting the EU's democratic requirements, such as equality of rights, will become problematic. This complicates access to international aid, including potential programs like the "Marshall Plan".

Ukraine After the War — Democratic Civil Society

This scenario envisions Ukraine remaining a democratic state after the war, adhering to principles of equality and human rights. All citizens, regardless of their involvement in the war, will have equal rights, with state attention focused on supporting the most vulnerable groups. This support will include the reintegration of military personnel returning from the front lines and the inclusion of individuals with disabilities resulting from physical and psychological injuries.

"In this scenario, maintaining social unity will play a crucial role. Sociological research indicates that attitudes toward internally displaced persons are relatively neutral, but views on refugees are somewhat worse. Negative sentiments in social media towards these groups may reduce the percentage of those returning from abroad. The worst attitudes are directed at those who remained in occupied territories or hold Russian citizenship. This creates a risk of social tension that must be addressed through dialogue among different social groups and information campaigns aimed at changing public stereotypes," the sociologist continues.

Adherence to democratic principles and integration into the EU will facilitate access to international aid, which will be vital for infrastructure recovery and economic development. Veterans will receive appropriate support through retraining and rehabilitation programs, but without dividing society into "privileged" and "secondary" categories. Such an approach will create conditions for the return of Ukrainians who have left and will serve as a foundation for the country's recovery, according to Paniotto.

"Post-war Ukraine needs to unite society around a common goal — the restoration of the country. The scenario of a militarized civil society, while acknowledging the contributions of the military, has significant demographic and social issues and risks international isolation. In contrast, a democratic approach focused on equality and support for all citizens opens the path to EU integration, attracting international aid, and building a strong, just, and united state," the professor concludes.

It has also been reported that in Ukraine, the average life expectancy for men has decreased from 65 to 57 years. Additionally, the country ranks among the lowest in the world for birth rates.