Germans are advancing: Can Berlin establish Euro-NATO, and what implications will this have for Ukraine?

69-year-old Friedrich Merz, who led the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to victory in the recent unexpected Bundestag elections, made a rather striking statement regarding the global security system.

The future Chancellor of Germany, who consistently supports providing Ukraine with Taurus missiles in response to signals from the White House about the potential cancellation of security guarantees for Europe that have been in place since 1945, stated: "I never thought I would have to say something like this, but after Donald Trump's remarks... it becomes clear that this administration does not care much about Europe's fate. That is precisely why my absolute priority as Chancellor will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible, so that step by step we can truly achieve independence from the USA."

Merz Fears Losing Germany's Leadership

Moreover, Mr. Merz hinted that this task is so urgent that he is uncertain whether the leaders of the North Atlantic Alliance, who are set to gather for another summit in June, will "still be talking about NATO in its current form, or if we will have to create an independent European defense much more quickly."

It is quite telling that Merz equated the United States under Trump with Russia, which is constantly viewed in Germany as a key threat to Europe's security. Additionally, Friedrich Merz, commenting on the visits to the US by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French leader Emmanuel Macron, emphasized that he cannot shake off the feeling of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out). Building on this, the future head of the German government noted that Berlin must also "be there" (in the US), as Germany, alongside London and Paris, is part of the "big three" European states.

It should be noted that Germany is the second-largest donor of military assistance to Ukraine after the US. Friedrich Merz assures that he wants to continue this line, but unlike France and the UK, he is currently cautious about the idea of sending soldiers to Ukraine to support a potential ceasefire. However, analyzing the transformation of Germany's assistance from protective helmets to Leopard tanks, one could assume that if Mr. Merz says "No" today, it does not mean that this position is irreversible in the future.

On the other hand, it is quite clear that Friedrich Merz will have to navigate a rather delicate crisis, balancing between fighting for Berlin's geopolitical leadership and moving somewhat in line with the expectations of ordinary Germans regarding support for Ukraine. By the way, recent public opinion polls in Germany clearly demonstrate that 46% of Germans want the next federal government not to support Ukraine with weapons or money. Support for providing weapons and resources comes from 28% of respondents. At the same time, 7% of German citizens wish to help Kyiv solely with money, while another 8% want to provide only weapons. Meanwhile, 6% remain undecided, and 3% stated that they are indifferent to the issue.

What Benefits Will Ukraine Gain from Euro-NATO

While emphasizing that the first case of a hypothetical Euro-NATO was eagerly championed by French leader Macron, the political scientist noted: "Alongside the fact that after the elections in Germany on February 23, there is a certain competition in this direction, Merz, being quite an active player, is trying to fully engage in this track. We will see a clearer German policy after the ruling coalition is formed there, but the fact that Merz, without wasting time, states his position is evidence that official Berlin intends to play a significant role in shaping a unified European security system. This system can be referred to as Euro-NATO or otherwise, but it is clear that Ukraine could occupy one of the key positions here, thanks to the experience and scale of the activities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine."

Noting that the Russians are currently pushing for a constantly active neutrality for Ukraine, Igor Chalенко emphasized: "In this situation, the initiatives of Macron/Merz regarding the need to create Euro-NATO are a very good indicator for us, as by pausing regarding the Alliance, Kyiv will certainly not delay in joining the formation of other military-political blocs, particularly collective European security forces."

Can Europe Create an Effective Alternative to NATO?

According to the expert, all possibilities for relatively prompt construction of a European security system still exist. "When Ukraine was asking for tanks, was it primarily for Abrams or Leopards? In my opinion — Leopards, because they are much more convenient for us. This is the best example that with great desire, Europe can create a technically equipped Euro-NATO. After all, let’s not forget the fact that when World War II was ongoing in Europe, it formally began on September 3, 1939. Meanwhile, the US entered the war in December 1941. So, for two years, the war went on without the participation of the United States. Therefore, returning to our days, I can state: Europe has all the resources, including economic ones, to build its own security system — it just needs the will."

When the White House sees real steps from Europeans towards building an alternative to NATO, Trump, predicts Ivan Us, will reverse course: "Given Trump's particular fondness for various provocations, I assume that he will notice that he has achieved his goal and that Europe is spending more on its own security, and will initiate a return to normal dialogue within NATO. But I am far from certain that Europe will agree to play a secondary role in the Alliance according to the old rules."

However, the expert models the situation, Europe will constantly demonstrate to Washington that the monopoly on global security no longer exists for the US. Ultimately, Ivan Us concludes, Ukraine will remain a beneficiary as long as Europe remains active. Primarily because, having significantly increased its own arms production, Europeans will swiftly provide it to Kyiv, fearing that the war might knock on their own doors.