Face-off: What kind of world does Trump intend to negotiate with Putin?
"I would say that, strangely enough, we have already received several proposals on this matter from various countries. I will not specify which countries to avoid indicating any possible or impossible developments, but such proposals have been made and are being made," Ushakov said. In fact, this was his response to a question from Russian journalists about whether similar initiatives had been proposed by the Prime Ministers of Slovakia and Hungary, Robert Fico and Viktor Orban.
How Biden and Moscow Reacted to Trump's Desire to Meet with Putin
It is worth noting that Donald Trump's statement regarding his readiness to hold a personal meeting with Vladimir Putin to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian war was made recently during the Turning Point USA conservative conference in Phoenix, Arizona. While outlining his priorities after taking office on January 20, Trump reaffirmed his determination to fulfill his main geopolitical campaign promise — end the war. "President Putin said he wants to meet with me as soon as possible. So we will wait for that; we must put an end to this war. I will end the war in Ukraine. I will stop the chaos in the Middle East. And I promise that I will not allow a third world war," the Republican noted.
In response to reports about the preparation for a meeting between the leaders of the U.S. and Russia following the change of administration in the White House, President Biden's National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan agreed with Donald Trump's main thesis regarding the need to achieve a peaceful resolution. However, he identified the key tool for achieving peace as increasing pressure on Russia. "I think Trump should continue to apply pressure. I believe that agreements can then be reached," emphasized Jake Sullivan in an interview with CNN.
According to him, if Washington withdraws its support for Kyiv, "pulling the rug out from under Ukraine," and agrees to Russia's conditions, it would severely damage U.S. interests in the long term. "Therefore, I think the most important thing for Donald Trump is to send a signal to Putin: The United States will continue to support Ukraine, Europe will continue to support Ukraine, until you accept fair terms for a just peace," Jake Sullivan concluded.
Meanwhile, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that "dialogue with the U.S. on the Ukrainian issue" can take place on different platforms, but its content and the approaches of the elected U.S. president's team are crucial.
"To discuss this topic, one must understand, first of all, what the future U.S. administration's position will be on this matter. What we hear does not align in many aspects and cannot align with our approach. It is still completely unclear what approaches the Trump administration will ultimately adopt on this matter," said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, adding that "Russian initiatives are based on its legitimate interests, key objectives of the special military operation, and the realities in the conflict zone."
How Putin Plans to Outmaneuver Trump During the Meeting
Experts believe that Putin intends to exploit Trump's love for rapid direct diplomacy to his advantage: "This is precisely why we have seen Putin recently trying to demonstrate a willingness to engage in dialogue. It is clear that he wants to draw Trump into a direct dialogue — without aides and advisors. And for Trump, to justify the reputational risks of his meeting with the internationally recognized criminal Putin, it is crucial that this meeting yields some significant results."
The political analyst suggests that Putin will attempt to manipulate in various ways, "which, given Trump's vanity, is quite a dangerous situation for us."
Why Trump, Rather Than Putin, Appears as the 'Main Cowboy'
However, as Taras Zahorodniy points out, recalling Trump's statement on Syria, he is like a shark that smells blood, and thus will act decisively. "Trump might say to Putin: 'What can Russia guarantee today, when foreign troops are on your territory, and you can do nothing about it? Ukrainian drones are flying to you almost daily, and the SBU is 'taking out' your top generals in the center of Moscow!?' This is one aspect. Secondly, Trump insists on fixing the line of demarcation, which Russia categorically opposes," the political analyst summarizes.
Moreover, the expert believes that assessing various peaceful options from Trump's team, Ukraine will be militarized, which also does not sit well with the Russians. At the very least, these two "categorical and fundamental contradictions," emphasizes Taras Zahorodniy, suggest that without concessions from Russia, there will be no substantive conversation. The political analyst argues that Trump's emphasis on the meeting with Putin indicates that it is not him but the Kremlin leader who desperately needs this meeting. Thus, he emphasizes that it is Trump, who is taking a strong stance, that is the 'main cowboy,' not Putin, which means that the future U.S. president will be the one to outline tasks for Moscow that it will have to fulfill to some extent.
Noting that Putin has trapped himself with his whims, the expert added that Trump will in no case make concessions, as doing so would make him look weak, "someone who will be scorned by the whole world." Overall, Taras Zahorodniy predicts that Trump's own policy will be anti-Russian — not out of great love for Ukraine, but in light of protecting U.S. national interests. In this paradigm, the political analyst concludes, the United States will, among other things, export more oil, bomb Iran, and constantly pressure China, dismantling the "unholy trinity" of Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran.