Operation "One Hundred Days": Can Trump put an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
Donald Trump made his appeal to Putin regarding the need to end the Russia-Ukraine war public on the social media platform TruthSocial. Among other things, he stated that he "does not want to harm Russia," "loves the Russian people and has always had very good relations with Putin." The former president of the United States also recalled how "Russia helped us win World War II, losing nearly 60 million lives in the process."
1 "Given all this, I am going to do a huge favor for Russia, whose economy is collapsing, and for Putin. Make a deal now and end this senseless war! It will only get worse from here! If an agreement to cease hostilities is not reached soon, I will have no choice but to impose high taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on everything Russia sells to the United States and other affected countries. Let’s end this war, which would never have started if I were president! We can do this the easy way or the hard way — and the easy way is always better. It’s time to make a deal. No more lives should be lost!" — summarized Donald Trump.
How much time Trump has to end the war in Ukraine
Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. president has tasked his special representative for Ukraine and Russia, retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, with ending the Russia-Ukraine war in one hundred days, "however, almost no one believes he can accomplish this, especially the Russians."
2 "Kellogg's role as a special envoy in Ukraine is an initial gambit in the peace negotiations that Trump intends to keep under his control. Negotiating with the head of Russia will be much more challenging than Trump promised during his campaign, when he claimed he would end the war before taking office," the publication concludes.
According to Reuters, which spoke with two of Trump's associates involved in discussions about the Russia-Ukraine war, U.S. presidential advisors realize that the process of ending the war will take months or even longer. "While the exact contours of Trump's peace plan are still being discussed, Trump's advisors generally support the idea of removing the possibility of Ukraine's NATO membership from the agenda, at least in the foreseeable future, and freezing the current front line," the agency notes, adding that most senior advisors to Trump also support providing Kyiv with material security guarantees, such as establishing a demilitarized zone, patrolled by European forces.
How and why Trump is courting Putin
Labeling Trump's "courtship" of Putin as not the position the U.S. hoped for from Ukraine, an expert added: "Trump respects a strong hand and an authoritarian style of governance. But if we set aside the story of the 'love' the U.S. president has for the Russians, we see that overall the current situation is quite constructive, as Trump is clearly stating that if there are no negotiations, there will be serious sanctions against Russia. Just recently, in response to journalists' questions about stronger anti-Russian sanctions in the absence of peace talks, Trump noted that yes, that is possible, not excluded, and so forth. So, a clear formulation was lacking. Now it has emerged, and that is a plus."
3 According to Maxim Nesvitaïlov, the issue of imposing stricter sanctions on Moscow lies within American interests: "If Trump intends to implement his program, which he articulated during his inaugural address, then anti-Russian sanctions are actually beneficial for Washington. 'Storms, little one, storms,' Trump said, emphasizing oil and gas extraction. He plans to sell all this to Europe and therefore he has no competitors there. Through the appropriate sanctions, he can completely oust Russia from that market and take it for himself. Such a move has a double benefit for Trump, as it can ultimately be framed under the sanctions narrative that this is, so to speak, the U.S. response to Russian aggression against Ukraine, while simultaneously using it for economic and business purposes."
4 Experts do not see Trump's sanction threats against Russia as baseless, noting that the American leader is indeed prepared for decisive actions. As for the timeline for a potential end to the war, particularly the 100-day deadline, the political scientist is more skeptical: "I personally do not believe in the story of one hundred days. During this period, negotiations for starting negotiations may conclude, but the negotiations themselves will not even begin within the outlined timeframe."
What game Donald Trump is playing with Putin
The fact that the President of the United States has gone public with ultimatum signals to Putin, according to political scientist Maxim Jigun, indicates that Trump's "carrot method for the Kremlin" has not worked.
At the same time, Donald Trump's signal of great love for the Russians can be interpreted in various ways, believes Maxim Jigun: "I think that upon hearing the U.S. president's words that the Russians or the Soviet Union helped America win World War II, Russian historians and propagandists fell off their chairs, as they have spent their entire lives shaping the narrative that the USSR did everything, while the U.S. was muddling around on the sidelines, which essentially reflects the level of losses. However, we see that Trump is forming his own view. Nevertheless, as a person who tries to minimize bloodshed in any situation, mainly speaking about possible tough sanctions, Trump is still inclining Moscow toward a deal."
5 Modeling the probability of whether the Russia-Ukraine war can be resolved within a hundred days, the expert noted that this will largely depend on the outcomes of Trump's meeting with Putin. According to Maxim Jigun, there are many signs indicating that May, when the hundred days from Trump's assignment to Kellogg will expire, is a good time, as Putin may play this story as a "huge victory by the 9th."
On the other hand, Maxim Jigun emphasizes that for Americans, "the 100-day operation" is a great opportunity to demonstrate to the world that "Trump can achieve anything" and that the U.S. adheres to the stated timelines, no matter how challenging the geopolitical challenges may seem. At the same time, the political scientist does not rule out the scenario where Russia rejects U.S. proposals and then we will have to wait for the moment when Russia faces colossal economic problems, glimpses of which are already visible in some areas.