Heating is available, but will it be warm enough? Will Ukraine's gas reserves last throughout the winter?

Naftogaz has reported that the companies of the Naftogaz Group — JSC "Ukrgasdobycha" and PJSC "Ukrnafta" — extracted over 13.5 billion cubic meters of blue fuel together in the 11 months of 2024. Meanwhile, it was reported in October that 12.9 billion cubic meters of gas were injected into Ukraine's underground gas storage facilities, which nearly matched the previously planned figure (13 billion cubic meters).

However, experts doubt that the reported gas reserves in underground storage correspond to reality. For instance, the former head of "Operator GTS of Ukraine," Sergey Makogon, recently noted that the information regarding reserves at the level of 12.9 billion cubic meters includes 0.6 billion cubic meters of buffer gas and even 230 million cubic meters of gas in storage at TNT. "This means that there are 7.75 billion cubic meters of gas from Naftogaz and other Ukrainian companies (producers, OGTSU, etc.). This gas can theoretically be relied upon," the expert believes. He adds: even if this is enough to get through the heating season, we will end the season with almost empty underground gas storage.

"By the end of February - beginning of March, there will already be very little gas in underground storage, so the ability to withdraw gas will be significantly reduced, and it will be insufficient to meet the demand for gas (especially if there are severe frosts). Therefore, we need to think about gas imports during this critical period already now," Makogon believes.

Experts say that Naftogaz may have to inject additional volumes of gas into underground storage during the winter.

In his view, the problem with gas accumulation is also closely linked to the collapse of the heating and communal energy system. "And the fact that there is currently a gas shortage for the population is a result of insufficient gas supply for the heating and communal energy sector. As a result, people in many cities are forced to heat their homes using electric energy, which is also in short supply, adding extra pressure on the energy system," the expert says. He adds: there was a certain mistake made by Naftogaz, as more gas should have been injected into underground storage in the summer when the resource was cheaper. According to Omelchenko, it is quite possible that in winter Naftogaz will have to purchase and inject gas into underground storage.

It is worth noting that "Gazprom" plans to reduce gas exports to Europe by 20% in 2025 under its baseline scenario — down to 39 billion cubic meters compared to over 49 billion expected in 2023. The decrease is explained by the cessation of transit through Ukraine.