Negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine: Will Trump take it upon himself to negotiate with Putin?

The European Union is concerned: Donald Trump, who is soon returning to the White House, may attempt to address the "Ukrainian issue" through negotiations with Putin without European involvement. This possibility raises not only fears but also strategic reflections on the future role of the EU in global politics.

Concern in Europe: Negotiations on Ukraine without Europeans?

It is no secret that European leaders are eager to secure their role in future peace negotiations regarding Ukraine. However, there is a risk that their influence will be minimized, especially in light of potential bilateral agreements between the newly elected US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. This is reported by Euractiv.

After three years of war in Ukraine and on the eve of Trump’s inauguration, European diplomats are worried that upcoming negotiations may proceed without considering their interests. The EU, as one of the main donors and partners of Ukraine, insists on its key role. But Trump's position, aimed at quickly ending the war, calls into question Europe’s participation in shaping a peace agreement.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is seeking to strengthen its position on the battlefield before the new US administration takes office. President Volodymyr Zelensky currently excludes the possibility of swift peace agreements and insists on security guarantees from NATO.

In return, Trump has signaled his readiness to take the initiative, but statements about "peace within 24 hours" have already transformed into more realistic timelines — up to six months. His team is preparing for active diplomatic moves, but the format of the negotiations and the composition of participants remain uncertain.

EU leaders, including those from France, Germany, and Poland, are striving to avoid a limited format like the Minsk agreements, which could exclude them from key decisions. Some countries, such as Hungary, have already demonstrated conflicting approaches, complicating the EU's unified stance.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni believes that the US will not withdraw its support for Ukraine but emphasizes the need to create a strong European coalition. Poland, as the rotating president of the EU, may play a leading role in the next six months.

European diplomats note that it is important not only to be present at the negotiating table but also to have a clear understanding of the objectives. A lack of unity and a plan could weaken the EU's position and lead to outcomes less favorable for Ukraine. Reports suggest that Europe must insist on a common Western strategy that includes Ukraine as an equal partner to avoid antagonism between the US, the EU, and Ukraine amid a complex geopolitical situation.

Could Trump’s negotiations with Putin occur without Ukraine?

Political scientist Oleg Posternak believes there are risks — Trump may shape Eastern European policy by simplifying dialogue with Putin. Ukraine risks being left out of key agreements, especially if the Russian dictator insists on peace agreements that do not account for Kyiv's interests.

However, there is another scenario: it may be more advantageous for Trump to involve Ukraine as a lever to pressure Russia. In this case, the Ukrainian side would not only participate in the negotiations but also become a key element in applying pressure on Moscow. But this will depend on Putin's behavior and his willingness to compromise.

At the same time, another question arises: Could a direct dialogue between Trump and Putin be beneficial for Ukraine? According to the political scientist, this depends on how Trump formulates his goals. Direct negotiations with Putin are neither a disaster nor a problem. The leader of the largest economy in the world and a military dictator at the negotiating table — this is real geopolitics.

"The US benefits from having a direct dialogue with Putin, and this is precisely what Moscow has sought since 2014. Putin has repeatedly stated that the "Ukrainian question" can be resolved through dialogue with Washington. But I don’t think Trump will simply ignore Ukraine’s interests. On the contrary, involving Kyiv as an important partner could strengthen his position in negotiations," Posternak continues.

However, Trump could very well exclude Europeans from these negotiations.

The newly elected US president has complicated relations with the EU leadership, the European Commission, and the European Council. According to the political scientist, he has a negative view of some European leaders. Additionally, there are concerns that Trump may announce new tariffs for EU countries, which increases economic risks for Europe.

Trump has also demanded that EU defense spending be increased to 5% of GDP and that the presence of American troops on European soil be reduced. This creates serious security challenges for the European Union.

"Ukraine seeks to integrate into the EU. If Europe finds itself outside the negotiation zone, it will negatively affect Ukraine. This is not Biden's policy, which sought to coordinate positions with other countries within the G7 or G20. Trump's strategy may be more straightforward, and he will act at his discretion," Posternak states.

This poses a challenge for the European Union, which previously developed the concept of a European army or security system but did not complete these projects. For the EU, this is seen as a lesson and an impetus for further subjectivity in defense and security, according to the expert.

Let us remind you that Florida Congressman Mike Waltz, whom Donald Trump envisions as his national security advisor, stated that meetings between Trump and Putin have already begun.