The path to peace in Ukraine: What Zelensky aims to achieve following the controversial interview with Friedman.

In an interview with American podcaster Lex Fridman, President Volodymyr Zelensky clearly outlined the sequence of negotiations aimed at ending the war with the Russian Federation.

"I think that on January 25 or another day, we will first sit down with Trump. We will negotiate how we can stop the war and Putin. If the American leader offers strong security guarantees for Ukraine, then after that, we may have a conversation with the Russians. And that’s how it should be, not just sitting down together immediately," emphasized the head of state, highlighting the importance of Europe having a voice as well, "because Europe will be looking at us and Trump." Zelensky also added that almost all European leaders always inquire about his conversations or meetings with Trump. At the same time, the president speculated that Trump might find himself in a difficult political position if he achieves a ceasefire without providing Ukraine with adequate security guarantees. "Don’t wait for Putin’s willingness. Force him to do what is necessary to end the war — that is crucial," the president concluded, adding that Putin's goal is to create discord between him and Trump and end the occupation of Ukrainian territory.

During the election campaign, it is worth noting, Donald Trump repeatedly boasted about his good and even friendly relations with Putin and publicly promised that if elected, he would end the Russian-Ukrainian war within 24 hours.

Are Ukraine's Peace Wishes Realistic?

Not ruling out the scenario where counterproposals from the Americans may arise during Zelensky's meeting with Trump, an expert added: "Depending on whether official Kyiv agrees to the U.S. proposals, it will become clear whether there is any sense in involving the Russian Federation in this process. However, the proposals mentioned in Zelensky's interview with Fridman are quite relevant and do not contain anything impossible. Furthermore, in my opinion, the number of, let’s say, ultimatum demands from our side is significantly decreasing, such as the acceptance of all territory into NATO or the provision of an outrageous amount of weapons for counteroffensive actions. That’s not the case. Instead, the discussion concerns a specific amount of deterrent weapons and other security guarantees that will help reduce Putin's appetite for aggression in the near future. In other words, Ukraine is not proposing anything that Trump, if he has the political will, could not implement."

Considering that Ukraine is not speaking of war until the last bullet and the return to the borders of 1991, Maxim Dzhigun notes that the ability to negotiate with the Americans on some intermediate option for pausing the war now seems quite realistic.

What Approach Will Trump Choose for Peaceful Resolution?

Speaking of strong security guarantees for Ukraine from the United States as a prerequisite for contact with Putin, Volodymyr Fesenko noted: "The issue of security guarantees, rather than territories, will be one of the key points for us in negotiations to end the war. The question of occupied territories is a deadlock. That is, it is an absolutely stalemate situation where no compromise is possible even theoretically. What kind of security guarantees could these be? Unfortunately, we do not yet know the U.S. position. However, we do know what probable concessions the U.S. is willing to make to Russia to end the war, particularly concerning Ukraine and NATO. By the way, I think this is a misstep by Trump's team because, having some proposals already, the Russians will demand even more."

The most important question, according to Volodymyr Fesenko, is how Trump will act when he finally realizes that the Russians actually do not want compromises and perceive any concessions as a sign of weakness. At the same time, the political scientist noted: "It should be clearly understood that even the well-known fifth article of NATO is not an absolute guarantee of security. Potentially, Article 5 is the most effective, but how it will work in practice, nobody knows for sure. And if Trump is ready to abandon Ukraine's NATO membership to end the war, we will have no choice but to look for alternative options, either security guarantees for Ukraine from the U.S. on a bilateral basis (similar to those provided by Washington to Japan, South Korea, Israel, and Egypt), or powerful weapons as a security guarantee."

The political scientist expressed doubts that the U.S. would provide Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles within the framework of deterrence guarantees and summarized: "We will most likely have to develop our own missile weapons."

Overall, in Fesenko's view, the main factors for deterring Russia and providing security guarantees for the future may be two components: a strong Armed Forces of Ukraine with powerful weapons and systematic military-economic support from allies at the same level that Kyiv had and has during the full-scale war. The foundation, the political scientist states, has already been laid in the security agreements that Ukraine has signed with a number of countries. Therefore, the key nuance is that they must work de facto even after the fighting ends. The expert predicts that if the war concludes, Ukraine will implement a strategy of defense alliances with certain European countries, particularly with Poland, the Baltic states, Northern European nations, and some continental European states.