Radical measures: Will Ukrainians return from abroad if the EU cuts back on payments and support?

The Ukrainian government is exploring various methods to encourage the return of Ukrainians from abroad. One of the proposals involves reducing support for Ukrainian refugees in EU countries. Additionally, there are discussions about limiting access to consular services for men of conscription age. This is reported by the Spanish socio-political publication El Pais.

This is not the first time the authorities have mentioned the return of Ukrainians to their homeland, and now a new agency has been established to address this issue — the Ministry of National Unity. President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that its work is one of the priorities under the sustainability plan presented to parliament on November 19. The ministry was created based on the reorganized Ministry for Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories and officially began functioning on December 3.

Returning Ukrainians from Abroad: Preparing for Elections in Ukraine

Political expert Oleg Posternak believes that information from Western media regarding such issues should be approached with caution, as it can be interpreted in various ways. However, there are two clear signals indicating that the authorities are actively working to attract votes from the overseas electorate.

If measures to reduce support for refugees are indeed implemented, the expert argues that it would not be wise to count on the votes of Ukrainians abroad, as these decisions would likely be received very negatively. Nevertheless, this approach may find approval among some segments of Ukrainian society, particularly those who remained in the country during the war and have a negative attitude towards those abroad.

"Because there is a large mass of people who left for abroad from regions that have not experienced large-scale destruction (for example, from western regions), and these individuals are often employed illegally or left to avoid mobilization. In this context, the idea of their return may be perceived as a 'just step' from the perspective of those who stayed in Ukraine," the political scientist suggests.

Returning Ukrainians from Abroad, Not from Occupation

Public and political figure, Doctor of Law Boris Babin notes that, overall, the idea of creating the Ministry of National Unity has elicited not just contradictory but very justified criticism from various experts and society. The main issue is the dissolution of the Ministry of Reintegration, which was responsible for Ukrainians in occupied territories.

The expert believes that this decision by the authorities appears to be a political maneuver aimed at securing votes from the Ukrainian diaspora. The creation of a new ministry for this purpose raises questions about the feasibility and effectiveness of such a step, as it sets a precedent not seen in Ukraine’s recent history. Furthermore, there are concerns regarding the implementation of a program for the return of Ukrainians.

"The only category of citizens for which the Ukrainian government can and should demand return is those liable for military service. According to the Constitution of Ukraine, all citizens have an obligation to defend the state. If a person is fit for military service, or their professional activity is critically important for defense capability, the state has the right to require their return. This is something the authorities should discuss with society and foreign partners. However, a significant number of Ukrainians who left for abroad are civilians who fall under international protection," Babin continues.

According to the expert, in such conditions, Ukraine's demands to foreign states to reduce or eliminate this protection could contradict international law, as well as the Constitution of Ukraine. If the authorities insist on such steps, it will not only fail to bring citizens back to Ukraine in large numbers but also strengthen their integration in the host countries.

European countries view Ukrainian refugees as a resource for their economies and societies. Therefore, coercive measures or reductions in aid will not stimulate returns. Babin asserts that the only effective ways to encourage Ukrainians to return are to end the war, ensure stability, improve income levels, and enhance the political and security situation in Ukraine.

Director of advocacy at the ZMINA Human Rights Center Elena Luneva shares a similar opinion.

The expert states that returning to a country where combat operations continue, and where daily missile strikes and drone attacks occur, poses not only a risk to life but also requires individuals to independently seek housing, employment, and solve numerous problems without adequate state support. In this situation, attempts to reduce assistance or persuade European countries to do so are unreasonable unless Ukraine has completed its "homework" — creating conditions for return.

"In my view, Ukraine is currently absolutely unprepared for the mass return of citizens. There must be a balance: the state should be interested in people, as their return is a matter of national recovery, demographics, and the future. But there is a question as to why the state emphasizes the return of Ukrainians from abroad while ignoring those who remained in occupied territories or are internally displaced persons," Luneva continues.

Ukraine is not yet creating the necessary conditions for these individuals, nor is it resolving issues related to documentation, payments, or basic support. Moreover, the body that previously dealt with IDP issues — the Ministry of Reintegration — is being reorganized into the Ministry of National Unity, which focuses solely on Ukrainians abroad.

"This appears to be a strange and inconsistent policy that only exacerbates the imbalance in the treatment of different categories of citizens. This should not be the case," the expert concludes.

The Ministry of National Unity: Why Is It Needed?

The organizational aspects of the new ministry also raise many questions. For instance, Boris Babin wonders: what funds will it operate on if the budget has already been approved? What powers will this structure have if they duplicate the functions of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs?

"And one can read the Constitution; officials must act according to the laws. The question arises: guys, what are you doing? On what funds are you doing this? After all, you are public servants; you have a budget program, an estimate, a distribution. I don’t see any of that. This creates a situation where foreign partners will not understand the role of representatives of this ministry," Babin states.

Thus, the idea of creating the Ministry of National Unity appears to be ill-conceived and primarily politically motivated. According to the expert, instead of addressing the real problems faced by Ukrainians in occupied territories or facilitating their return, the authorities are creating a new bureaucratic structure with questionable functions and powers. This only deepens public distrust in state institutions and their ability to resolve pressing issues.

It is worth noting that, according to German media reports, the decrease in job availability and increased competition in the labor market complicate the employment process for Ukrainian refugees in Germany. Experts believe that political changes following the parliamentary elections in 2025 could lead to cuts in social assistance and intensify discussions regarding the potential return of refugees to Ukraine.