Russia may target NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine: will Article 5 be invoked? — Political analyst

"Russia has not achieved all of its goals set in 2022, but it continues to make plans. Aware of Ukraine's desire to reclaim its territories, it will prepare for new aggressive moves. To avoid such a scenario in the coming years, until Ukraine joins NATO, the idea of deploying a peacekeeping contingent seems quite feasible. This could serve as a temporary security guarantee," noted Posternak.

He specified that such forces could be stationed along the front line or at the borders with Belarus and Russia, where active combat operations are not currently taking place. The rights and duties of the peacekeepers will be determined based on the mission's mandate.

"If it's a UN mission, there are one set of rules; if it's the OSCE, there are different ones. If we're talking about foreign troops, this will require separate agreements between Ukraine and the participating countries. Such decisions must be approved by the Verkhovna Rada, with a clear definition of the conditions, principles, and duration of the presence of foreign contingents," added the political scientist.

However, Posternak does not rule out the risks of attacks from Russia, even against peacekeepers. Moscow may consider a scenario of direct aggression against these forces. Given Russia's previous threats to NATO countries, as well as sabotage actions and incidents involving drones and missiles in Poland and Romania, predicting the aggressor's restraint is difficult.

According to the expert, an attack on peacekeepers representing NATO countries could theoretically be interpreted as an attack on the Alliance, triggering the consultation mechanism under Article 5. But this does not guarantee a collective response.

"Article 5 is a mechanism with certain nuances. For instance, the United States may not find it prudent to involve all allies, which could limit NATO's actions," explained Posternak.

The political scientist also pointed out the likelihood of discussing options for security guarantees for Ukraine. He stated that this could involve the introduction of NATO military contingents without a UN mandate, which would represent a completely different approach.

"But there are no guarantees that Russia will not attack the peacekeepers. If this is considered a workable option, it would require changing Ukraine's Constitution, which prohibits the deployment of foreign military bases on its territory," concluded Posternak.

Recall that on December 12, French President Emmanuel Macron visited Warsaw to discuss the geopolitical situation, the war in Ukraine, and cooperation with the Polish leadership. Reports in the media suggested that he was allegedly going for negotiations on creating a stabilization military contingent in Ukraine.

In turn, Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration Olga Stefanishina stated that Ukraine is ready to engage in dialogue regarding the acceptance of foreign troops.