The toughest winter, the defense of Pokrovsk, and the threat to Dnipro: an interview with aerial reconnaissance expert Alexander Karpuk.

Pokrovsk Direction: Tactics of the Russians and the Counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces

What is the current situation in the Pokrovsk direction? What challenges do Ukrainian forces face in this sector?

We, the 59th Brigade, are holding our positions in the Pokrovsk direction. We were redeployed here alongside the 155th and 32nd brigades, as we are one of the more experienced brigades that have been fighting in the Donetsk direction for a long time. This was part of the reinforcement of the defense, and we managed to hold the line. We have stopped a powerful offensive wave from the enemy and stabilized the situation, but it is a team effort — various units are operating in this direction. Overall, the enemy continues to make attempts to break through.

The Russians are employing a tactic — when they hit a defense, they try to bypass it from the flanks. They have been pressuring along the entire front line, and where they could not break through, they immediately tried to flank. Now they are attempting to break through to Mezheve, using the same strategy — searching for weak points on the flanks. However, the command is aware of this and is redeploying reinforcements to critical areas.

Recently, due to the massive attacks from the enemy, our defensive line has occasionally "sunk" in places. Now we are closing these gaps, and the situation is gradually stabilizing. Unless there are radical changes — for example, 100,000 new soldiers, like Uzbeks or troops from North Korea — the overall situation appears to be manageable.

The enemy has faced significant difficulties over the past month. They have suffered considerable losses, particularly due to the weather conditions. They are forced to rely more on infantry, and given their style of offense — needing to cover 10-15 kilometers on foot — many soldiers simply cannot endure physically. This means the Russians are compelled to slow down their advance due to both losses and technical challenges.

However, this war is unpredictable. It only takes one unit somewhere to falter and retreat, and this could trigger a breakthrough that would take months to stop. Therefore, there are no guarantees. But for now, we can say that the enemy's offensive wave is gradually slowing down.

Can we say that in the Pokrovsk area, the Defense Forces of Ukraine have transitioned to counteroffensive actions, as noted by some monitoring channels?

No, we cannot. A counteroffensive in the classical sense involves systematic assault actions by units in specific areas. This is not happening now. We are carrying out certain actions to restore positions and hold strategic heights — these are all tactical decisions implemented by commanders on the ground. This is called active defense. So, we are gradually transitioning from a static defense to active actions in certain areas, but we cannot yet speak of a full-scale counteroffensive.

What do the fortifications look like now in and around Pokrovsk?

Yes, there are fortifications, and they are being actively built and improved. But it is important to understand that fortification is just one factor of defense. Technical equipment and personnel are equally important. After all, defense is maintained not only by trenches but also by the training of units, their level of interaction, and the morale of the troops.

Fortifications do exist, and in some areas, the terrain allows for their maximum effective use. However, the main issue is not just the presence of fortifications, but which units occupy them and how prepared they are for combat.

For example, in the direction from Ocheretino, the Russians almost entered Myrnohrad, which is a direct road to Pokrovsk. But there, they were halted by marines, and the situation was managed to be held. This was made possible not only due to the fortifications but also because a prepared unit was deployed to these positions, which could effectively defend them. This means the fortifications work, but only if they are held by experienced military personnel with adequate support.

Offensive in the Dnipropetrovsk Region and Threat to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk

From time to time, concerns arise regarding a possible offensive in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Does the enemy have enough resources for a large-scale strike in this direction?

Right now, they are struggling even with Pokrovsk, so it is premature to talk about a threat to the region on the scale of a full-scale offensive.

To understand the situation, one must consider the enemy's tactics. Donetsk is one of the largest agglomerations in Ukraine, a complex battlefield, especially when the enemy is fighting with "meat" rather than equipment. Fortifications here do not play such a critical role because the Russians often simply bypass them. If there is no opportunity to detect and destroy enemy assault groups that are flanking positions in time, the fortifications lose their effectiveness. It turns out that Ukrainian troops can hold the defense well, but if they are flanked, they are forced to retreat to avoid encirclement.

The Donetsk region is characterized by its dense construction; every destroyed house can become a mini-fortress. But if the enemy moves into open spaces closer to the Dnipropetrovsk region, the situation will change. The terrain there is relatively open, making offensive operations significantly more challenging. This is the main reason why the occupiers have found it difficult to advance in the Zaporizhzhia or Kherson regions — there is no dense construction, and there are large open spaces that are easy to fire upon.

Why are there discussions about the threat to the Dnipropetrovsk region? One of the wedges that the enemy is trying to advance in the Pokrovsk area has shifted towards the region. But I do not think this area is a priority target for them in the near future.

How real is the threat to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk?

There is a threat — both to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, Dobropillya, and other cities. The enemy is trying to advance, but it cannot yet be said that they are "on the doorstep."

So they are still only trying to break through?

Yes, they are trying to break through, but the intensity of the assaults is gradually decreasing. This is due to both weather conditions and the overall state of their personnel. Right now, their main goal is at least to accomplish local tactical tasks, let alone strategic breakthroughs.

Reinforcement of Enemy Electronic Warfare Units

It has been reported that the enemy has reinforced the Pokrovsk direction with one of their best electronic warfare and reconnaissance units. What are these units, and what threat do they pose?

I do not know what these units are. Speaking generally, Donetsk is the most technologically saturated section of the front. It is a large agglomeration, a city with a million inhabitants, where there were many pro-Russian elements and defectors who have been fighting against Ukraine for over 11 years. During this time, they have created a powerful system of fortifications and surveillance equipment.

In particular, there has long been an extensive network of reconnaissance and electronic warfare units: these are stations that can intercept signals, jam communications, detect drones, and interfere with their operation. Surveillance cameras are installed at heights, and various monitoring and control means are used.

However, every time they upgrade their systems, we have to find ways to adapt. We are also developing our technologies to effectively accomplish tasks. This means this is yet another attempt on their part to enhance the protection of their assault units, counteract Ukrainian drones, and active defense. How successful they will be remains to be seen.

How actively does the enemy use reconnaissance drones in your area of responsibility? Are the anti-drone units effectively reducing their activity?

In our area of responsibility, perhaps one of the largest concentrations of their reconnaissance drones is located. Several crews are constantly working against them, specializing in their destruction. Currently, the "wings" do not fly every day; these are very episodic flights, so it is not always possible to, let’s say, catch this reconnaissance "wing," but this work is ongoing.

Where is the Ministry of Defense Looking? Supply Problems on the Front

How well are Ukrainian units supplied with weapons, ammunition, and drones? What is critically lacking on the front lines?

We survived this winter somehow, but I do not understand why no one is talking about it. Everyone knows, but no one is saying anything. We are becoming like the Russians — we start to ignore problems. We had a shortage of drones, Mavic, FPV drones. The procurement process was handled very poorly. The entire front felt this. Everyone talks about it, especially those who found themselves in situations where a hundred FPV drones had to be divided among four battalions.

And what does a hundred FPV drones from the state mean? It's providing four crews with operational drones per day – 25 drones per crew. This is a pittance. We