Putin's Weak Spot: How Kyiv Can Leverage the Kursk Operation in Negotiations.
Regarding the crucial and even "critical" significance of Ukraine's position in the Kursk region during future peace negotiations, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated recently following a meeting with South Korean Foreign Minister Choe Tae-yong in Seoul. The head of the State Department emphasized that even if negotiations take place, Ukraine will still demand "adequate security guarantees", as Putin will not consider the "game over." "His (Putin's — ed.) imperial ambitions persist, and what he will try to do is rest, rearm, and ultimately attack again," Blinken summarized.
It is worth noting that President Volodymyr Zelensky also emphasized the importance of the Kursk operation recently. According to the head of state, this serves as a "strong trump card" in all negotiations, not just with Russia.
How Ukraine Can Leverage the Kursk Region in Negotiations with Russia
The Kursk factor, according to experts, could be a powerful mechanism to "bring Putin to the negotiating table." Notably, Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, commenting on Antony Blinken's aforementioned statement, did not rule out some coordination between the Biden administration and the team of the newly elected U.S. president.
"Donald Trump, clearly realizing that Putin is unwilling to negotiate, coordinated with the Democratic administration to provide Ukraine opportunities to advance into the territory of the aggressor state, thereby strengthening Kyiv's initial negotiating positions. If by the start of negotiations the Armed Forces of Ukraine manage to hold onto this foothold, it could serve as a basis for certain compromises regarding the de-occupation of regions that Russia did not include in its Constitution, such as parts of Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions."
Additionally, Zhelikhovsky notes that the Kursk factor can be utilized to prevent Russia from making demands regarding "the complete and final neutrality of Ukraine". "If Trump's team envisions a 10-20 year pause regarding Ukraine's integration into NATO, then Putin insists that this should be indefinite. I believe that eventually a specific timeframe will be outlined, which is also very important for us. Furthermore, Russia might, so to speak, slow down its "efforts" to obstruct Ukraine's European integration, which could later become a guarantee of our security, serving as a certain alternative to the North Atlantic Alliance. In any case, Kursk can be used as a bargaining chip, as it is indeed our trump card," the expert concluded.
Territorial Exchanges in the Future: Why the Kursk Operation is Important
Noting that despite the current offensive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region, the stakes for Putin have somewhat diminished, the expert stated: "One of Putin's goals was to liberate Kursk by January 20, that is, before Trump's inauguration. Given recent events, achieving such a goal seems impossible. Trump will certainly attempt to organize negotiations after his inauguration, where the Kursk factor will undoubtedly be present, and not in the least significant positions."
Why the Kursk Region Fits into Trump's Peace Paradigm
"In this sense, Kursk, cynically speaking, is indeed a bargaining chip. Of course, it does not work simply in terms of exchanging one territory for another, but from the perspective of global processes, it truly matters. Historical precedents exist where similar things were used in negotiations, where one party ceded one area while the other did the same with another. Thus, it can serve as leverage against Russia from Ukraine and its partners. Additionally, it symbolically strikes hard at Putin, who has already mentioned dates multiple times when the Kursk region should be returned under Russian control. The latest date was January 7. Next, he will have January 20, but overall, the prolonged presence of the Armed Forces there places Putin in a rather, to say the least, unfavorable position, especially in the eyes of his closest circle," the expert noted.
Characterizing the Kursk operation overall as a psychological and realistic factor that can influence the course of negotiations, the political scientist summarized: "Ukraine can start from the position that 'we have something to offer you, what will you offer us?' This tactic somewhat aligns with Trump's logic. Perhaps he will not acknowledge it, as he views such things as escalating the situation, but this is precisely the logic of a deal: I give you something, and you give me something in return. In this case, Kursk may be that 'something' that Ukraine can offer."
Meanwhile, regarding the possibility that the Kursk region of Russia may soon mark the beginning of the end for Putin's regime, reports The Telegraph: "Kursk could very well be the beginning of the end for Putin in 2025, just as it was for Hitler in 1943. It seems that Ukrainian troops have dealt a real blow to the Russians in Kursk over the past few days." Notably, the publication describes Putin as a "terrible military leader" who "has forgotten or, more likely, does not know the principles of conducting war, particularly the one that states — consolidate success, not failure."