Sunday09 March 2025
telegraf.org.ua

"U.S. may raise the issue of lifting sanctions against Russia," said political analyst Vladimir Fesenko.

Experts view the latest European sanctions against Russia more as a political demonstration of Europe’s unity with Ukraine rather than as an effective tool for exerting real pressure on the aggressor nation. Meanwhile, in the United States, there are indications that easing sanctions on Russia might be included in negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. A political analyst shared insights with Focus about the current situation and its potential implications.
"Политолог Владимир Фесенко заявил, что США могут рассмотреть возможность снятия санкций с России."

According to political scientist Vladimir Fesenko, the future of the sanctions imposed on the aggressor country by the US and EU hinges on the negotiation process aimed at achieving a ceasefire.

Using the example of the 16th package of European sanctions against Russia, the expert pointed out that Europe is demonstrating political unity with Ukraine, which suggests that such restrictions carry more political weight.

On February 24, the 16th sanctions package against Russia showcased that, despite certain new circumstances and shifts in the US position regarding peace negotiations, the European Union continues its sanctioning policy against the aggressor state.

He stated that the 16th sanctions package does not mark a qualitatively new phase of pressure on Russia.

Analyst and member of the Ukrainian Society of Financial Analysts Andrei Shevchishin agrees with the expert. He adds that although this package imposes additional restrictions on the shadow fleet, it will not be effective without US cooperation.

16-й санкционный пакет ЕС не является качественно новым этапом давления на Россию

Cancellation of Anti-Russian Sanctions: Will the US Agree?

If the negotiations lead to a stable ceasefire, the US will likely negotiate with Europeans about joining a phased cancellation of sanctions against Russia.

"For Russians, considering bilateral trade and the overall scale of trade relations, sanctions from Europe hold much greater significance. The Americans understand this well. Therefore, separate negotiations will be held regarding sanctions, in which Europeans must participate," Fesenko explained.

If the negotiations indeed succeed in achieving a stable ceasefire, it is highly probable that the US will negotiate with Europeans about joining a phased cancellation of sanctions against Russia.

Currently, how the issue of phased cancellation of sanctions will be resolved, and whether Europe will join in, remains an open question. It is possible that Americans may reach an agreement with the Russians, which Europe might not recognize. However, the EU is still expected to join the negotiations.

"There will be numerous complex questions arising there. I will mention just one: the issue that will be very challenging and contentious, around which there will be a fierce struggle between the EU and the US — the fate of Russian financial assets in the West. These 300 billion in frozen funds, the interest from which is already partially being used to aid Ukraine," predicts Vladimir Fesenko.

Следует ожидать очень острой борьбы между ЕС и США из-за судьбы российских финансовых активов на Западе

It is worth noting that experts interpret the Kremlin's statement about its supposed willingness to allocate funds for Ukraine's reconstruction as yet another cunning move by Russia. They will likely demand that these funds be used for the restoration of the Ukrainian regions occupied by Russia, effectively seeking to reclaim that money.

"The next step is clear — they will demand the return of a significant portion of these funds, conditionally for the reconstruction of Donbas. This option certainly does not satisfy Ukraine. Therefore, further efforts will be needed to ensure that these 300 billion, or at least the part currently under European control, which constitutes 90% of this money, is used specifically for the reconstruction of Ukraine and does not return to Russia. This is one of the most critical and principled issues at present," the political scientist added.

Recall that the European Union approved the 16th package of sanctions against Russia on February 24, marking the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion of the Russian army into Ukraine. The sanctions target 48 individuals and 35 legal entities, as well as 74 tankers from the Russian fleet transporting oil.