A test of integrity: will the countries opposing Ukraine's NATO invitation openly say "no"?

The publication Politiko reports that the victory plan of Zelensky faces challenges as it relies on Ukraine receiving an invitation to join the North Atlantic Alliance, while "some key" NATO members are not interested in this happening.

"According to four American and NATO officials and diplomats who shared insights from recent internal discussions on the condition of anonymity, Germany and the U.S. are among the largest states that are slow to respond to Zelensky's call for an immediate invitation to join NATO. Key members of the Alliance are concerned they could be drawn into a war with Russia," the publication notes.

Which countries hide behind the backs of the U.S. and Germany

In an interview with Politiko, the U.S. representative to NATO, Julianne Smith, emphasized: "As of today, the Alliance has not reached a point where it is ready to offer membership or an invitation to Ukraine."

Meanwhile, the publication points out that Germany and the United States are not the only blockers of providing Kyiv with an invitation. "Hungary and Slovakia are also resisting, but they come from a different starting point. Their current populist leaders, Orban and Fico, generally hold pro-Kremlin positions. Orban called Zelensky's 'victory plan' terrible, while Fico warned that Ukraine's NATO membership 'would be a good foundation for a third world war' and promised he would 'never agree' to it. There are other countries that are not eager to move quickly towards Kyiv and are content to hide in the shadows," the publication emphasizes.

According to Politico, countries like Belgium, Slovenia, or Spain "hide behind the backs of the U.S. and Germany." "They do not want (to provide Ukraine with an invitation — ed.)," said one NATO official. Another official mentioned that these countries "support the idea abstractly, but as soon as it approaches realization," they will begin to oppose it more publicly," the newspaper notes. Alongside this, NATO officials who spoke anonymously with Politico consistently sought to emphasize that neither Washington nor Berlin "exclude the possibility of Ukraine joining the Alliance."

It is worth noting that the spokesperson for the President of Ukraine, Sergey Nikiforov, stated that the information regarding 7 countries opposing Ukraine's invitation to NATO is not accurate. "These rumors benefit those who want to create a false impression that Ukraine's membership lacks broad support among Alliance members. In reality, the idea of inviting Ukraine is supported by an overwhelming majority of member countries, and active advocacy work is being carried out regarding the others," the spokesperson for Zelensky concluded.

In the NATO issue, all roads lead to the White House

According to the political scientist, it is crucial for Kyiv to receive a "yes" from the U.S., particularly to "clearly reveal which countries do not wish to support Ukraine's invitation to NATO, despite the positions of key partners such as London, Paris, and Washington." "This will create a situation of additional pressure on such countries from a coalition of resolute members within NATO, including the Baltic states and Northern European countries. Then we will have a very concrete discussion," argues Oleg Saakyan.

Otherwise, the countries opposing Ukraine's invitation to NATO, the expert believes, "will continue to hide behind the backs of the U.S. and Germany, which is willing to voice its position aloud."

"Ukraine needs to make maximum efforts to disavow the current situation, and the way to achieve this is to get a 'yes' from the United States. Then the question will arise for other countries whether they are ready to publicly say 'no' or if they will follow the common position," notes the political scientist.

Regarding the first option, Oleg Saakyan emphasizes that such countries will have to debate not only with Ukraine but also with a number of NATO countries "that are steadfastly and categorically 'for' Ukraine's invitation."

"And it is precisely such open debates that those countries, which are currently trying to mask their positions, fear. For them, the best situation is one of uncertainty from the U.S. And if the United States clearly states that it opposes, the chances of changing the positions of other countries will be virtually nonexistent. In this sense, all roads lead to the White House," concludes Oleg Saakyan.

Washington must clearly state its position on Ukraine's NATO invitation

"Chancellor Scholz, with all his flexibility or even, as it seems to us, fear for his political future, has always listened to the United States. Now the key question is who in the U.S. will give the corresponding signal — will it be Biden, or will this mission be passed down to his successor or successor," emphasizes the expert.

The fact that the number of countries opposing Ukraine's invitation to NATO is increasing, as noted by Oleg Lisny, "is not a very fair game regarding Ukraine, as it demonstrates the lack of a significant consensus."

The political scientist models a situation where, with such dynamics, "the scheme might turn in the other direction and as a result, influential countries will refer to smaller ones, arguing that all decisions in NATO are made by consensus." Overall, the situation regarding Ukraine's invitation to the North Atlantic Alliance, Oleg Lisny believes, serves as a certain test of integrity for partners, "because the Western press mainly retransmits what the West is pushing and preparing Ukraine for."

Meanwhile, the President of Slovakia, Peter Pellegrini, quoted by state Russian media, during a visit to Germany on October 24 stated that the issue of Ukraine's NATO membership (not an invitation — ed.) is currently unrealistic. According to him, Olaf Scholz fully shares this position. "With Mr. Chancellor, we agreed that today the question of Ukraine's NATO membership is not on the table for discussion and cannot even come to this table. This request is unrealistic not only due to the positions of, for example, Germany, Slovakia, or Hungary. There are several other countries that currently have problems with this," said Pellegrini. Additionally, he added, "during the recent round table of presidents in Krakow, the opinions regarding Ukraine's NATO membership were about 50-50."