The three-step peace plan from the US and Russia: why both Trump and Putin aim to sideline Zelensky.

The negotiations between representatives of the USA and Russia commenced in Riyadh on the morning of Tuesday, February 18. Meanwhile, the day before, Russian Foreign Minister Serguei Lavrov, Putin's assistant for international affairs Yuri Ushakov, and the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund Kirill Dmitriev arrived in the Saudi capital. The American side was represented by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Trump's National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, Middle East Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe.

What outcomes were reported in Washington and Moscow

"We simply agreed to take each other's interests into account moving forward. However, we will also promote bilateral relations, as both Moscow and Washington are interested in this," stated Ushakov, assistant to the Kremlin chief, calling the talks successful. According to him, the delegations discussed, among other things, the "preparation of conditions" for an in-person meeting between Putin and Donald Trump, as well as the "Ukrainian issue."

Meanwhile, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund Kirill Dmitriev mentioned that the representatives of the USA and Russia communicated "on equal footing" and with mutual respect. He added that the American delegation was "very surprised to learn that the losses of American businesses after exiting the Russian market are estimated at $300 billion."

At the same time, the U.S. State Department noted that Marco Rubio and Sergei Lavrov agreed during the negotiations in Riyadh to create a consultation mechanism to eliminate "irritants" in U.S.-Russia relations, as well as to form high-level teams to begin work on the "swift resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict." The American side described the meeting in Riyadh as "an important step forward" towards ending the war, but emphasized that this is insufficient for establishing peace.

"President Trump wants to stop the killings, and he is the only leader in the world who can convince Ukraine and Russia to agree to this," stated State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce following the negotiations in Riyadh. At the same time, she emphasized that a single phone call (presumably referring to the recent conversation between Trump and Putin — ed.) followed by one meeting is not enough to establish lasting peace, "which means this is just the beginning of the process."

What key condition for success in the resolution do the USA and Russia see

Meanwhile, Fox News journalist Jackie Heinrich, citing numerous foreign diplomatic sources, reported that the representatives of the USA and Russia discussed a three-stage peace plan in Riyadh, which includes a ceasefire, elections in Ukraine, and only then the signing of a final peace agreement. She emphasized that Washington and Moscow view the holding of presidential elections in Ukraine as a key condition for the success of the resolution process, believing that any candidate other than the current President Zelensky "will be more flexible and willing to negotiate and make concessions."

Pointing out that the previously announced meeting between Trump and Putin at the end of February will not take place, the expert stated that the parties in Saudi Arabia did not actually "agree on anything, no matter how much they puff up their cheeks."

Why both Trump and Putin want to eliminate Zelensky from the equation

Expressing the belief that Volodymyr Zelensky is not a convenient candidate for either Trump or Putin, the expert concluded: "It is clear that both the White House and the Kremlin believe that another politician who could replace Zelensky as president would be more compliant and would sign whatever he is told, thus not hindering a major American-Russian reset. However, it should be noted that officially, the USA and Russia did not mention elections at all following the negotiations in Riyadh. Instead, Marco Rubio stated that the negotiation process will be long, but for the Russians, this is enough for now, as they have rapidly broken through their diplomatic isolation from the West and are now full partners of the United States, which just yesterday they could only dream of."

Does Trump really want to see only himself as the mediator?

The expert believes that as of now, Donald Trump categorically does not want to see any mediators at the peace negotiations table besides himself. "Trump has painted a clear picture for himself, where there is Ukraine, Russia, and himself as the mediator who will ultimately receive the Nobel Peace Prize. The big question is whether he will be able to achieve this, but so far he does not want to allow Europe or China to be involved. The only issue that raises some concern is that Zelensky was not informed in advance about this meeting. In this sense, the words of the Ukrainian president carry weight, stating that all meetings that take place without us or behind our backs are null and void. Null and void, in the sense that we should not be obligated to fulfill anything agreed upon by the two sides, regardless of what they discuss—ceasefire, elections, etc.," notes Oleg Lesnoy.

According to the expert, it is absolutely essential not to despair, thinking that everything has already been decided for Ukraine without its involvement. This approach is considered at least premature by the political scientist, as official Kyiv has repeatedly demonstrated recently that it can say a clear and firm "No", including to the United States.