Ukraine plans to repatriate refugees from Germany. Here's how it will be implemented and whether mass deportations will take place.

President's advisor on strategic issues, Alexander Kamyshin stated that a pilot project for the return of citizens from abroad will commence in Ukraine at the beginning of 2025. According to him, Ukrainians will be brought back, including for recruitment into the defense sector.

"We are working on a program to return Ukrainians to Ukraine's defense industry. Therefore, there will be a pilot project for Ukraine and Germany under the guidance of a new ministry (which will be responsible for the unity of Ukrainians and their return home, — ed.)", — said Alexander Kamyshin.

Returning Ukrainians from abroad: how to do it

Sociologist, director of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, Volodymyr Paniotto noted that a lot needs to be done to facilitate the return of Ukrainians from abroad. In particular, certain conditions must be established.

He is also concerned about the attitude towards those who left the country. Users on Facebook are more negatively inclined than those surveyed by sociologists. People perceive this and believe that upon returning to Ukraine, they will face biased treatment.

"The program that exists includes certain activities. To be honest, I am not very familiar with it. It seems to me that it has just been created and will be developed. They (the officials, — ed.) themselves do not yet know how and what to do," the sociologist said.

"This is called forced deportation. Currently, discussions are underway regarding the deportation of those who have committed offenses. Deporting them in large numbers is extremely difficult," Fesenko said.

He explained that the German government might make decisions that could create challenges for the continued stay of certain categories of Ukrainian refugees in the country. However, they could relocate to another country. There is also another possibility, the political scientist noted. Germany might do what the Czech Republic is doing — incentivize and provide relocation assistance for those who wish to return to Ukraine. However, for the return of people from abroad, the Ukrainian government must also provide incentives.

"It's one thing when it comes to residents of western Ukraine; they have somewhere to return to. In fact, a significant portion of migration from these regions is artificial. There are no direct threats of war there; there are shellings, but these occur throughout Ukraine. Therefore, first and foremost, we can incentivize the departure of those who have a place to return to," he explained.

Fesenko noted that migrants from eastern regions, which are under occupation or in combat zones, have nowhere to return to or find work.

"If, for example, Germany allocates part of its assistance to provide housing for people from frontline regions, and the Ukrainian government offers them jobs, it would be a serious incentive to return. But all of this needs to be negotiated," emphasized the political scientist.

Is there a shortage of personnel in Ukraine's defense sector?

According to Paniotto, among those who left Ukraine, there are many specialists in the defense sector.

"Certainly, there is a shortage of personnel; we have never had such a demand in the defense sector. Moreover, during Yanukovych's presidency, the army and defense sector were deliberately dismantled. Of course, we need much more than we had anticipated. Even in Europe, there is a lack of personnel, and plans are currently being revised to significantly increase the defense sector over the next few years," the sociologist declared.

He stated that the defense sector does not only involve the front; it will also concern the rear. Furthermore, these individuals may be better protected than others.

"Defense enterprises are particularly secure. Some may work online, depending on what they do. I believe they will attract individuals to the defense sector selectively, meaning they will reach out to specific specialists who have left and invite them back," Paniotto concluded.

Fesenko confirmed that there is a shortage of personnel in Ukraine's defense sector. He referred to the words of Taras Chmut, head of the "Return Alive" fund, who stated that private defense companies have increased their workforce from 200 to three thousand. However, they plan to further increase this number to eight thousand.

"The Ukrainian government must determine how many people are needed for work in the defense sector and at which enterprises. There should definitely be guarantees for them; specific specialties are required. Targeted efforts are necessary to reach out to specific individuals abroad and identify who is needed," he said.

The political scientist noted that coercive measures will not be effective, particularly since they would be costly. Mass forced deportations are extremely rare, especially in democratic countries.

"If active measures are taken to return Ukrainian refugees, it will most likely happen after the winter, not before," he added.

At the beginning of December, the chief consultant of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Pavel Frolov, announced that about ten thousand IDP families will receive funding for new housing by the end of 2024 and early 2025. According to him, 4,800 families have already received new homes.