Enlisting in the army at 18: why lowering the conscription age won't benefit Ukraine.

Future U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz believes that Ukraine should lower the conscription age to 18. This way, it is claimed that "hundreds of thousands of new soldiers" could be obtained.

"When we hear a lot about morale problems... look, if Ukrainians are asking the whole world to sacrifice everything for democracy, they too must do everything for democracy. They have certainly fought bravely and taken a very noble and tough stance, but we must see that these issues with personnel shortages are being addressed," said Mike Waltz.

Lowering conscription age as a form of political pressure on Ukraine

Military analyst Dmitry Snegirev is convinced that lowering the conscription age is unnecessary, as such statements from partners are an element of political pressure on Ukraine. He noted that after President Zelensky's statement last year that Ukraine maintained its subjectivity regarding the lowering of the conscription age, which concerns the nation’s gene pool, John Kirby's message emerged, the coordinator for strategic communications at the U.S. National Security Council.

He stated that discussions about lowering the conscription age are a form of political pressure, since if Ukraine agrees to the U.S. proposal, it would negate Zelensky's previous statements about subjectivity in this matter. Additionally, this creates social tension within Ukrainian society. Moreover, it could negatively impact potential ratings, as the possibility of parliamentary and presidential elections cannot be ruled out. Conversely, if Kyiv disagrees, Washington shrugs and says: "Sorry, we offered you a recipe to stop the Russians. You didn’t take it, now we will reconsider our military-technical assistance."

"This is a form of pressure on Ukraine aimed at bringing us to the negotiating table. It creates conditions where none of the decisions will align with Ukrainian interests," the analyst noted.

Why changing the conscription age makes no sense?

Ukrainian serviceman Daniil Yakovlev believes that Ukraine does not need to lower the conscription age. He pointed out that there are enough people as a resource in the army.

According to him, the army should focus on optimizing recruitment. The serviceman is confident that if the rules of engagement are clear, people will want to join the army voluntarily. He reminded that there is a brigade with a large percentage of personnel who have come on their own.

"Can brigades recruit these people somehow? This needs to be scaled up across the entire army, using the experience of the units that currently exist. We can also give those units that can independently recruit more opportunities in terms of expanding the official salary, thus increasing their numbers," emphasized Daniil Yakovlev.

Partners are demanding the lowering of the conscription age from Kyiv, the fighter noted. In his opinion, the partners themselves do not fully fulfill their direct obligations to protect Ukraine.

"If Western partners provided us with all the necessary assistance in a timely manner and in the required quantities, and removed all restrictions on the use of their weapons, we wouldn’t need to lower the conscription age because the situation at the front would be quite different. We are fighting with our hands tied behind our backs, so even lowering the conscription age won’t have a significant impact," the serviceman stated.

Additionally, he believes that if the conscription age is lowered, there will be a strong outflow of youth from Ukraine, as they are currently fighting for the youth and the future.

"Everyone understands that this is purely a political decision that will ultimately lead to a significant portion of the youth leaving the country," Yakovlev concluded.

Snegirev pointed out that even if the conscription age is lowered to 18, the number of potential conscripts would still be low, as there is not a large youth population in Ukraine.

"We can talk for a long time about how youth are more suitable for combat operations, physically stronger, and easier to train, following orders. But we are facing the issue of preserving the nation; we are currently last in birth rates and among the first in mortality," he said.

Moreover, Ukraine's mobilization reserve, even accounting for 18-year-olds, reaches a maximum of 3.5 to 4 million, while in Russia it is 12-15 million. Even if Ukraine lowers the conscription age to 17, there will be at least four Russians for every Ukrainian fighter. Right now, the war is about technology; the rules of engagement are dictated by those who have more advanced weapons.

"We have Western-produced weapons that surpass Russian ones in terms of tactical and technical characteristics. This allows us to maintain control of the situation after three years of war. The West needs to focus on providing us with weapons and technology to ensure our victory, rather than total mobilization," added Dmitry Snegirev.

Recall that in early December, media reported that Washington believes Ukraine will lose if it cannot mobilize a larger number of people.

On January 13, MP and member of the Rada's Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence Fedor Venislavsky stated that there will be no demobilization in Ukraine until the end of the war and the cancellation of martial law. He noted that we can only talk about the possibility of discharging certain categories of individuals from the army.