From wolves to jackals: how climate change could ignite a new war over vital resources in Ukraine.

Climate change is not merely an abstract concept or a global trend; it is a tangible process that is already affecting Ukraine. From droughts to abnormal temperatures, from shifting ecosystems to impacts on agriculture — the consequences of climate change are becoming evident to everyone.

One of the primary issues is the rising air temperature, which leads to milder winters and hotter summers. According to predictions, by the end of the 21st century, the average temperature in Ukraine could increase by 2-4 degrees.

This winter of 2024-2025 has already become one of the warmest in recent years, while last summer was the hottest. What lies ahead of us? But the main question is: what threats does climate change pose for Ukraine and its inhabitants?

Climate Change: Humans are Responsible for Warming

The primary cause of climate change is attributed by scientists to human activities, particularly the emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

"Despite these commitments, in 2024 we have already crossed the 1.5°C threshold. The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) confirmed that in 2024, the global temperature first exceeded the critical threshold of 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial period. The current figure stands at 1.56°C," says the expert.

It is crucial to understand that exceeding this level in certain months or years does not mean that the goals of the Paris Agreement are completely unattainable, emphasizes Ivashina. For climatologists to officially recognize a stable exceedance of this threshold, there must be an annual exceedance of 1.5°C or more for a decade. If there is a year with 1.4°C during this period, an additional year with an exceedance of 1.5°C will also be necessary to confirm the trend.

"Every tenth and even hundredth of a degree of warming matters significantly. This is because even a slight increase in temperature can lead to more severe extreme climate events, such as heatwaves, floods, droughts, and wildfires, which are already causing catastrophic damage worldwide," continues Ivashina.

The average global temperature is the temperature of the ocean plus the temperature of the entire planet — the equator, tropics, and polar regions. It is calculated as the average of all these temperatures over a day. If the average global value rises by 1.5°C, it means that in certain regions, such as the temperate latitudes where Ukraine is located, the temperature could rise by 10°C on hot days.

In summer, the increase in Ukraine could reach 12°C if the average global rise is 1.5°C.

Warming: Its Impact on People

"People born now may face an inability to adapt at the age of 40: unbearable heat in the summer, sudden frosts of -40°C in winter, shortages of water and food. In such conditions, it will be difficult to think about a career or a happy life — the daily priority will be meeting basic needs," the expert continues.

Moreover, the scarcity of resources will inevitably lead to conflicts. Both the war in Ukraine and many other crisis situations can be triggered by the struggle for vital resources.

According to estimates from the World Health Organization, from 2030 to 2050, global climate change could cause approximately 250,000 deaths annually worldwide.

Additionally, the Center for Public Health of Ukraine reports that after floods caused by warming, outbreaks of infectious diseases may occur, especially when engineering communications (water supply and sewage systems) are partially or completely destroyed.

In turn, the NGO "Ecoaction" emphasizes that besides physical harm, the consequences of climate change also threaten mental health. Extreme natural phenomena, forced migration, and crop losses cause significant stress for those who experience them.

Animals at Risk: How They Respond to Climate Change

Climate change, which has long ceased to be just a future forecast, actively affects all levels of ecosystems. One of the most noticeable aspects is the warm winters that alter the familiar living conditions for many wildlife species. Animals that were once adapted to cold conditions now face new challenges.

Climate change is particularly pronounced in regions where human activity impacts nature. In agriculture, particularly in fields, the cumulative effect of these changes is colossal. Where indigenous species have not yet been destroyed by tractor plows, their fate is often determined by climate change. Therefore, nature conservation, especially the creation of protected areas, becomes an extremely important task that gains even greater relevance in light of these changes.

"The threat to wildlife is amplified not only by climate change but also by human activity. Burning stubble, which is conducted annually in fields, destroys all living things, leaving only ashes. If the grass does recover, trees and bird eggs are lost forever. Fires caused by arson become even more destructive due to rising temperatures and unpredictable weather conditions," continues the expert.

Regarding plants, the invasion of species such as common burdock highlights the issues. This plant, which has spread from southern countries, thrives in compacted soil and arid conditions. Its thorns can cause trouble even for cyclists, puncturing tires. Another example is the olive tree, whose aggressive expansion threatens to destroy natural steppes and forests. It has recently been banned from reproduction in forest and forest belt areas.

"Among the animals arriving from the south, the Asian jackal deserves special attention. This species is not adapted to deep snow, and it is quite likely that under climate change, its population will expand, displacing wolves from their natural habitats.

Equally important is the shift in the habitats of species such as the common hare. In southern regions, where natural conditions are becoming less favorable for forest growth, this species increasingly relies on cultural landscapes, such as parks and tree plantations created by humans," says Kolomytsiev.

One of the biggest threats is that some mammals, particularly foxes, may become carriers of rabies, which poses an additional danger to humans. Climate change intensifies this process, increasing the likelihood of close encounters between people and wild animals.

"With a rise in global average temperature to 2°C, many species simply will not survive. Plants, amphibians, reptiles — orchids, frogs, lizards — cannot adapt quickly or migrate to more suitable regions," explains Anastasia Ivashina.

If warming can be kept within 2°C, half of the Greater Black Sea region will remain a refuge for 75% of its species. However, if the temperature rises by 4.5°C, only 5% of the area will remain suitable for the survival of these species.

"Ukraine must act in two directions: maintain warming at a safe level through increasing energy efficiency and developing safe alternative energy sources, as well as adapt protected natural areas. Without these measures, by the end of the century, we risk losing most local wildlife species," says the expert.

At the same time, forecasts indicate that 2025 may not be as hot as the last two years, but it is likely to rank among the hottest years on record, coming in behind only the aforementioned 2023 and 2024. Despite temperature fluctuations from year to year, the overall trend is evident, as is its cause — greenhouse gas emissions, primarily from fossil fuels.

How the War in Ukraine Harms the Climate

The full-scale Russian invasion also exacerbates the impact on the climate. During hostilities, fires arise, ecosystems are destroyed, and infrastructure is damaged. The total climate damage inflicted by the Russian Federation in just the first two years of the full-scale invasion amounts to $32 billion. During this time, an additional 175 million tons of carbon dioxide have been released into the atmosphere. This is comparable to the annual emissions of a country like the Netherlands, notes Ivashina.

The NGO "Ecoaction" has already appealed to the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine, and the Register of Damages caused by the aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, requesting that climate damage be considered in the Register.

We propose that specific losses related to climate change be included in applications under the category "Environmental Harm." Accounting for climate damage in the Register will allow for a more comprehensive assessment of the war's real impact on the environment and climate, as well as provide a basis for future reparations," the expert explains.

For Ukraine, it is crucial to achieve maximum accountability from the aggressor country, particularly financial, as recovery will require significant resources.

Assessing the climate damage from the war is, in fact, quite an innovative endeavor. No country has previously conducted such a comprehensive and systematic evaluation regarding how war affects the climate, especially during hostilities.

"Thus, accounting for climate damage in the Register of Damages will be an important step in addressing the consequences of the war and rebuilding Ukraine, as well as a catalyst for developing international law to hold the aggressor accountable for climate damage," concludes the climate specialist at NGO "Ecoaction."

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