The military aspect isn't the main focus: why did the Ukrainian Armed Forces launch an offensive in the Kursk region?

On August 6, 2024, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched an offensive in the Kursk region. For the first time in 11 years of war, combat operations were transferred to the territory of the Russian Federation.

According to information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, over five months since the start of the Kursk operation, the enemy has lost more than 38,000 troops, with 15,000 of those killed. An additional 860 Russian soldiers were captured for prisoner exchanges, which allowed for the return of hundreds of Ukrainian defenders.

"The goal of the Kursk operation was to prevent the enemy's advance in the Sumy region and to create a 'buffer zone.' The operation forced Russian occupiers to redeploy significant resources to the Kursk region, weakening their positions on other fronts. The invaders concentrated some of their most capable airborne, marine, and special forces units there," the report stated.

Additionally, due to the offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region, the enemy was compelled to request assistance from North Korea, which sent nearly 12,000 soldiers to Russia, of whom around four thousand have already been eliminated, and some units have lost their combat effectiveness.

During the offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region, the Defense Forces managed to destroy:

• 104 tanks;
• 575 armored vehicles;
• 1,104 units of automotive equipment;
• 330 artillery systems;
• 12 multiple rocket launchers;
• 12 air defense systems;
• one aircraft;
• three helicopters;
• 859 drones;
• 32 units of special equipment.

Ukrainian Offensive in the Kursk Region: Achievements Over 5 Months

"Significant changes have been brought about by the Koreans, who have joined the war and are mass attacking Ukrainian military positions. There are both positives arising from their achievements and negatives that adversely affect the course of events," said Roman Pohorilyi.

"As long as at least one of our fighters is on the territory of the Russian Federation within the legally recognized international borders, Putin has no opportunity to impose peace on us in exchange for territory," emphasized Oleg Zhdanov.

According to him, the Kursk region serves as a political trump card in the negotiation position. He noted that the enemy's losses during the offensive in the Kursk region are estimated at 38,000 personnel, while about 50-55 thousand Russian troops are currently fighting in this operational zone. As a result, these approximately 100,000 personnel could have been deployed to Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Toretsk, or Lyman directions today. Specifically, according to Ukrainian intelligence, the enemy command planned to increase the number of occupation troops in Ukraine to 700,000, but currently, their numbers remain at around 550,000.

However, former SBU employee and military analyst Ivan Stupak believes that the Kursk operation is more of a disadvantage for Ukraine.

Goals and Objectives of the New Offensive: What's Happening on the Front

Zhdanov believes that the aim of the new offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region is to improve the line of contact with the Russian Federation. He reported that maneuver warfare is currently ongoing. On one section of the front, Ukrainian fighters managed to bypass enemy positions, which will be cleared once counterattacks from the Russians are repelled. Additionally, a certain depletion of the enemy is observed in the Kursk region.

"There was a suggestion that the Russians would begin regrouping; we seized this opportunity and initiated separate offensive actions on specific sections of the front to improve and enhance it," the expert explained.

However, Pohorilyi finds it difficult to comment on the new offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region, as the results, objectives, and feasibility remain unknown. At the same time, the enemy, according to the analyst, has conducted massive assault actions in various areas, deploying columns of equipment.

"Unfortunately, the Russians have achieved successes that are very unpleasant for us and have unfavorable consequences," emphasized the co-founder of DeepState.

He shared that the Defense Forces are currently moving towards the Berdin hamlet. However, there is no confirmation yet on whether Ukrainian fighters have managed to reach or secure the area.

"Moreover, everything is still ongoing in an active phase with variable results for us," reported Roman Pohorilyi.

The analyst noted that the Russian Armed Forces are conducting assault actions in Mala Loknya, Sverdlikovo, and Leonidivka. There, the enemy is employing a large amount of equipment and achieving successes.

The new offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region, according to Stupak, has 30% military objectives—distracting the attention of the Russian General Staff from Pokrovsk, Sumy, Kurakhove, Dnipropetrovsk region, etc., and creating a new point of tension—while 70% is a political objective. It involves an attempt to draw attention again, to demonstrate that Russia is weak, and to create a certain number of internally displaced Russian citizens who will report that the war is already close, hence creating social tension.

"And as an option, it's also the case that Ukraine has not had any significant positive news from the frontlines lately. Perhaps this is a new attempt to create something positive at the beginning of the year," the analyst noted.

He emphasized that on the DeepState map, this territory is marked as a gray zone, meaning it's unclear whether the Defense Forces control this section of the front. The military analyst pointed out that the Kursk operation is limited, involving not tens of thousands of Ukrainian fighters and a restricted amount of equipment.

"In my opinion, this is an attempt to play this card, but whether it will work is uncertain. I don't think it will," Stupak stated.

When asked if the presence of Ukrainian fighters in the Kursk region would help during negotiations, Ivan Stupak replied that no one knows. On one hand, Ukraine could use this trump card during negotiations, but whether it would be accepted by the other side is another question. According to the analyst, the Russians might say they do not accept this and do not wish to take this trump card.

"It's like betting in a casino, or it might play out differently. I can't even imagine how this could work, although theoretically it could; I don't want to dismiss that," the expert concluded.

Recall that on January 7, the director of the information and consulting company Defense Express, Sergey Zgurts, stated that Ukrainian forces advanced to the northeast of Suja in the Kursk region. The Defense Forces are currently consolidating their positions in new areas.

On January 6, media reported that the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region could mark the beginning of the end for Russian President Vladimir Putin this year, similar to what happened to Hitler in 1943.