War in 2025: Should Ukraine expect a swift peace from Trump?

It is quite evident that on the brink of the fourth year of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the role of a key peacemaker is being attempted by the President of the United States, who has already managed to communicate with Putin via telephone and suggested that he might meet the Kremlin leader face-to-face by the end of February. Additionally, following Donald Trump's initiative, there was recently the first official meeting between American and Russian delegations since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion.

Simultaneously, the White House is maintaining communication with Ukraine. Specifically, the American president's special representative Keith Kellogg recently visited Kyiv, and during the recent Munich Security Conference, negotiations were held by Vladimir Zelensky with the U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance.

When to Expect a Ceasefire Agreement

Thus, despite the controversial statements made by the U.S. president, dialogue between Kyiv and Washington continues. Alongside this, Trump, who, while a presidential candidate, claimed he would end the Russian-Ukrainian war within 24 hours, recently stated at an investment summit in Miami that the conflict in Ukraine could be resolved within a year, "otherwise, a third world war could begin, and we are not far from that."

What Guaranteed Peace in 2025 Would Mean for Ukraine

An expert predicts that, across all four outlined areas, Ukraine will be compelled to make compromises. Oleg Posternak points out that while Ukraine's notions of compromise have somewhat clear outlines, the position of Russia regarding readiness for any concessions remains quite vague.

Based on this, the political scientist stated: "At this moment, the phrase 'just peace' is merely one of the definitions concerning forums and peace formulas, plans for sustainability, nothing more. But will 2025 mark the end of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war? The likelihood is certainly higher than it was last year. I think there is a sixty percent chance that this year will indeed be the year of the end of the full-scale war."

What Kind of Peace Plan to Expect in 2025

Emphasizing that Donald Trump is currently trying to pressure Ukraine and personally President Zelensky, the political scientist noted the following: "It is clear that the old-new U.S. president is upset that the Ukrainian president did not immediately sign the rare earth metals agreement. Most likely, this is the key reason for Trump's rather harsh rhetoric towards Bankova, particularly regarding Zelensky's 4% rating, which is absolutely inaccurate. In other words, Trump, like some political forces within our country, is making many statements that resonate with Russian propaganda. However, there are deep, national interests of the United States and the West as a whole, which will ultimately serve as deterrents to prevent the U.S. from completely surrendering Ukraine to Putin."

Considering the current dynamics, Igor Petrenko predicts that if peace is achieved in 2025, it will be unjust towards Ukraine, and the key question will be how unjust it will be. In the worst-case scenario, the political scientist believes, there will be a freezing of the conflict alongside the lifting of various anti-Russian bans and sanctions. This development of events is described by the political scientist as a de facto victory for Putin, who would obtain 20% of Ukrainian territories, a land corridor to Crimea, guarantees regarding Ukraine's neutrality, and similar outcomes.

In the case of the practical realization of another — half-hearted scenario, Igor Petrenko models the situation where Ukraine, although it will make certain concessions, will receive in return some form of security guarantees and continued Western financial and military support. This half-hearted, or compromise peace, is also considered unjust by Igor Petrenko. At the same time, the expert emphasizes that despite any negotiating climate, the highest Ukrainian leadership must continuously advocate for the establishment of a sustainable and just peace. Meanwhile, such a peace, according to Igor Petrenko, is unlikely to be a realistic maximum, given Trump's consumer approach to geopolitics in general and the Russian-Ukrainian war in particular.