War, elections, messages to Trump: why did Vladimir Zelensky visit Poland?

On January 15, Vladimir Zelensky made a working visit to Poland, where the presidential election campaign officially commenced. Specifically, the first round of the presidential elections will take place on May 18 in the neighboring republic, with a potential second round on June 1 if necessary.

About ten candidates have already expressed their desire to compete for the presidency; however, the main battle is expected to be between the candidate from the "Civic Platform" party, Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the Mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski, and Karol Nawrocki, who is backed by the currently opposition party "Law and Justice," represented by the incumbent President of Poland, Andrzej Duda.

According to the latest poll from Opinia24, the frontrunner is Rafal Trzaskowski with a support level of 29.8%. In second place is Karol Nawrocki, head of the Institute of National Remembrance, with 22.6%. The third position is occupied by the leader of the far-right "Confederation" party, Sławomir Mentzen, at 13.3%, while the current Speaker of the Sejm, Szymon Hołownia, stands at 7.2%. Rounding out the top five is Senate Deputy Speaker Magdalena Biejat from the "Left" party, with a popularity level of 3.9%.

Why the Volhynian tragedy was a recurring theme during Zelensky's visit

Initially in Warsaw, President Vladimir Zelensky met with Prime Minister Donald Tusk. At a joint press conference with the Ukrainian president, Mr. Tusk emphasized his opposition to using historical issues for political games, stressing that Kyiv and Warsaw find "common ground and methods of cooperation when it comes to issues related to the Volhynian tragedy and other sensitive, dramatic matters in our history."

It is worth noting that on January 10, Tusk announced that a decision had been made regarding the first exhumations of Polish victims of the Volhynian tragedy in Ukraine, without providing any further details.

Andrzej Duda, after meeting with Zelensky, advocated for resolving historical controversies, particularly the events in Volhynia, in a calm and constructive manner: "This is not a new topic; we have been discussing this with the president (Zelensky — ed.) for a long time, and it has been calm and constructive. It is no secret that this is a difficult issue that needs to be addressed thoughtfully."

Vladimir Zelensky expressed his hope for resolving historical disputes with Poland, as both countries should stand united against a common enemy, namely the Russian Federation.

No debate: what Poland says about Ukraine's NATO membership

After the meeting with Zelensky, both Tusk and Duda commented on Ukraine's European and Euro-Atlantic integration case: they fully support Ukraine's accession to NATO and the EU. Moreover, the Polish president stated that Alliance member states should, without delay, invite Ukraine to NATO. Meanwhile, Karol Nawrocki, a presidential candidate from Duda's party, claimed that he still does not see Ukraine in the EU and NATO "until historical controversies are resolved." In contrast, the Mayor of Warsaw and presidential candidate from Tusk's party, Rafal Trzaskowski, supported Ukraine's membership in the EU and NATO.

What signals did Zelensky, Tusk, and Duda send to Trump from Poland?

Highlighting that it was during the visit of the Ukrainian president to Warsaw that Polish leader Andrzej Duda remarked that Ukraine could receive an invitation to NATO here and now, the expert added: "Zelensky publicly stated that Ukraine does not intend to reduce its army, which is one of Putin's demands. Thus, regarding the essential issues, we heard very appropriate messages and decisive support from Poland — a central country in Eastern Europe, whose opinion will be heeded in the USA, undoubtedly benefiting us. Washington understands well that the militarized partnership between 'Ukraine-Poland' guarantees the United States that Europe will never ally with the Russian Federation and China, which is a nightmare for American diplomacy, signifying the ultimate demise of US dominance in the world."

Taras Zahorodniy emphasizes that even after the upcoming presidential elections in Poland, the position of the neighboring country on strategically principled matters, as established during Zelensky's current visit to Warsaw, will not change. "There is a term — 'deep state.' So, Polish elites at various levels have a clear understanding of what Pilsudski wrote: 'Without Ukraine, there is no independent Poland.' The Polish people recognize that Ukraine is currently a security donor for Eastern Europe and NATO, and no matter who becomes president, the overall strategy will remain unchanged," the expert believes.

Why Zelensky's visit to Poland is very timely

Noting that the Volhynian tragedy is an issue raised in Poland during every election, the expert added: "During Zelensky's visit to Poland, both sides, in my opinion, sent a proper signal that this issue will be addressed later, while we must now concentrate our efforts to combat our common enemy — Russia. In other words, the question of the Volhynian tragedy was articulated very skillfully. Additionally, I personally appreciated Tusk's words that anyone who does not understand that cooperation with Ukraine is in Poland's interest is either a fool or a traitor."

Stating that in the coming months, Poland will chair the European Union (EU), the expert noted: "The European integration of Ukraine was also, I believe, one of the main reasons for President Zelensky's visit to Poland, as we have had enough of Hungary's chairmanship, which was neither here nor there. It is also important that during the joint press conference with Zelensky, first with Tusk and later with Duda, it was stated that we will continue to receive military support. Personally, I am very pleased that we have a shared vision along the lines of Ukraine-Poland-Rutte (the current NATO Secretary General — ed.) in that Europeans must demonstrate a responsible position on security to the USA. In other words, Europe should follow Poland's example, which allocates 4% of its GDP to defense spending."

The USA needs a strong Europe, and only then will they engage in serious discussions, believes Oleg Lisnyy. "If we consider all of Europe as a whole, it seems that they (some European leaders — ed.) fear Trump more than they do Putin. By the way, I see that Poland, through its key politicians, is not afraid of Trump. Polish politicians can engage confidently with Trump face-to-face, which is important for us."

Overall, the political scientist considers President Zelensky's current visit to Poland to be quite constructive and timely from the perspective that it occurred before the inauguration of Trump, and it is also significant that it took place ahead of Warsaw's presidency in the European Union. Lisnyy is convinced that Ukraine should seek common ground with Poland and further develop these ties, leaving history to historians.