Can heating issues arise from power outages in winter? — Oleg Popenko, housing and utilities expert.
The Heating Situation and Two Scenarios for Winter
It should be noted that under an optimistic scenario, 8-9 energy units of nuclear power plants in Ukraine should operate steadily, and winter will not bring harsh frosts. In this case, it is possible to restore about 3 GW of the 6 GW of damaged capacity, which will lead to power outages lasting up to 12 hours per day.
If the recovery amounts to around 2000 MW of capacity with 6-7 nuclear units operational and winter temperatures at -10℃, the energy system may face a crisis.
In the worst-case scenario, if Russia continues its attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector, citizens may have to endure up to 20 hours per day without electricity and heating.
If the recovery amounts to around 2000 MW of capacity with 6-7 nuclear units operational and winter temperatures at -10℃, the energy system may face a crisis.
According to the forecast by housing and utilities expert Oleg Popenko, at a temperature of -10°C in winter, Ukrainians will likely have access to electricity for only 12-14 hours a day, leaving the remaining 10 hours without heat and light.
Are Apartment Buildings Ready for Winter?
The situation is exacerbated by the fact that the apartment stock is completely unprepared for winter. Oleg Popenko noted that due to the lack of major repairs in high-rise buildings, heat loss can reach 40-50% at the start of the season.
In the worst-case scenario, this means a drop in indoor temperatures to critical levels.
Due to the lack of major repairs in high-rise buildings, heat loss can reach 40-50% at the start of the season.
"To save gas, heating and communal services will reduce the temperature of heat carriers and supply to apartment buildings, which will lead to a temperature range of 14-16°C in apartments.
It is clear that all universities and schools will be sent on long-term breaks. The supply of electricity will also be under significant question. Besides nuclear power plants, we can only meet electricity needs through gas and a bit from hydropower plants. Wind or solar energy is unlikely to provide sufficient volume in low temperatures. This means that gas will be redirected to electricity supply. Therefore, under a pessimistic scenario, we will be without heat and electricity. This primarily affects frontline and border regions," explained Oleg Popenko.
Is There a Chance to Prepare for Winter Independently and What is Needed in Case of Power Outages?
The experience of the winter of 2023-2024 shows that preparation for potential power and heating outages is critically important. The main factor is the willingness of the residents to come together. While not everyone can equip their homes with the necessary equipment for blackouts or lack of centralized heating, it is possible to involve homeowners associations or utilities in inspecting and repairing networks.
"First of all, it is necessary to inspect the networks — electrical panels, hot and cold water systems, sewage, and to perform at least current repairs on the home's infrastructure so that it does not fail during the frost. It is also essential to ensure that buildings above the 9th floor have backup power sources. In case of outages or regional blackouts, there should be a way to supply power to the pump group that provides water and heat to the upper floors, as well as elevators. This is what needs to be done right now. However, this is indeed quite challenging," noted housing and utilities expert Oleg Popenko.
Additionally, for those with individual heating, it is advisable to carry out maintenance on boilers, heated floors, heaters, and air conditioners. It wouldn't hurt to collaborate with neighbors to insulate the entrance and the building — pipelines should be insulated, and all windows and doors should close tightly.