Aliyev vs. Putin: How Baku is pressuring the Kremlin following the downing of an Azerbaijani plane by Russia.

Ilham Aliyev emphasized that the aircraft was shot down unintentionally, noting that Russia should immediately recognize its guilt, apologize to Azerbaijan—considered a friendly nation—and communicate this to the public. "Unfortunately, during the first three days, we heard nothing from Russia except absurd explanations," Aliyev stated. He also called on Russia to punish those responsible for the plane crash and added that Moscow should provide compensation to the Azerbaijani state, the affected passengers, and crew members.

The final cause of the plane crash will be determined after the black boxes are examined, stressed Ilham Aliyev. However, he mentioned that initial versions were quite justified and based on the fact that the aircraft sustained "external damage on Russian territory."

As is known, Putin recently, during a phone call with Aliyev, apologized that "the tragic incident involving the Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft occurred in Russian airspace," but did not acknowledge any wrongdoing by the Russians. On Sunday, December 29, the Kremlin leader called Ilham Aliyev for the second time since the incident. Meanwhile, the parties have not disclosed the details of this conversation.

Meanwhile, on Saturday, December 28, Vladimir Zelensky had a phone conversation with the President of Azerbaijan, during which he stated: "The key priority now is a thorough investigation that will provide answers to all questions about what really happened. Russia must provide clear explanations regarding the plane crash. The photos and videos clearly show the damage to the aircraft's fuselage, particularly the holes and dents, which strongly resemble those caused by an anti-aircraft missile strike. We will support Azerbaijan in this situation with all necessary means and urge other countries to provide assistance as well."

Recall that on December 25, an Embraer aircraft of Azerbaijan Airlines, traveling from Baku to Grozny, crashed near Aktau in Kazakhstan. As a result of the accident, 38 people lost their lives.

How Aliyev Put Putin in a Tough Spot

Expressing the belief that the President of Azerbaijan put Putin in a difficult position, the expert added: "Aliyev demands not just acknowledgment of guilt and apologies but also compensation for expenses, something Russia has never done. By demonstrating strength in dialogue with the RF, Aliyev is also enhancing his authority in the Caucasus and stands a good chance of pressuring Russia further."

The mere fact of "unprecedented agitation" from Putin regarding the Azerbaijani aircraft incident, noted Taras Zahorodniy, is evidence of "how much weakened Russia has become today." "I believe many around the world are observing this and drawing appropriate conclusions. For instance, Trump might call China and say: 'And don’t tell me now that you can’t pressure the Russians to do everything I tell them to.' Meanwhile, for Ukraine, this story, particularly Aliyev's tactics, serves as a vivid example of how to build geopolitical relations and derive significant benefits from it," the political scientist points out. He emphasizes that Baku, "without shouting about it from the rooftops," consistently helps Ukraine in its war against the RF: "For example, as far as I know, a significant amount of, let's say, extremely sensitive goods is supplied specifically through Azerbaijan."

Overall, the line that Aliyev demonstrates after the aircraft was shot down over Russia, in Taras Zahorodniy's opinion, is a "bright example for the whole world of how a small, non-nuclear country can engage with a nation that just yesterday called itself a superpower."

"Aliyev caught the RF, so to speak, off guard. That is, the President of Azerbaijan, understanding the sensitivity of Putin's beloved project — Chechnya, demonstrated decisiveness, and now the Kremlin is running around, flailing, not knowing what to do or what to grasp," concludes Taras Zahorodniy.

What Game Is the President of Azerbaijan Playing With Putin?

Ilham Aliyev, according to the political scientist, diplomatically yet "firmly, openly, and clearly" articulates his demands to the Kremlin, "which should be supported by absolutely all civilized countries in the world."

"By not acknowledging its involvement in the incident, Moscow has once again demonstrated that for it human lives are nothing, despite Azerbaijan holding a very serious position regarding breaking the international isolation around the Kremlin," summarizes Igor Chalenko.

Noting that Aliyev has repeatedly "put Putin in his place," the expert recalled the case of Karabakh and Armenia, when the Kremlin leader had to retreat from supporting his ally in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), "entirely failing the Armenian track." The current situation, in the expert's view, is yet another demonstration of the geopolitical weakness of the RF leadership.

The expert expresses doubt that Baku will retreat from its position in the Russian-Ukrainian war following the incident with the downed aircraft over the RF, which officially involves providing Kyiv with humanitarian and energy support only, while unofficially, including military aid. Meanwhile, Igor Chalenko suggests that Azerbaijan may reduce the Kremlin's maneuvering space, particularly by ultimately refusing to assist the RF in transporting Ukraine's gas to Europe under the guise of Azerbaijani help. Concurrently, the expert predicts that official Baku will diligently develop economic projects that will directly compete with Moscow's position in the region.