Gas on Russia's terms or reduced aid to Ukraine: how Fico's threats to Kyiv are digging a hole for Slovakia.

The Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico continues his threats against Ukraine due to Kyiv's cessation of the transit of Russian natural gas.

According to Fico, Slovakia may "halt any humanitarian aid to Ukraine, decide to significantly reduce or completely eliminate benefits for Ukrainian refugees in Slovakia, or stop supplying electricity in emergency situations."

The Prime Minister also noted that at the political level, the country could exercise its veto power on several decisions within the European Union. However, Fico emphasized that Slovakia would take such steps only if it has "no other choice."

Later, Fico released a video address in which he loudly complained about the European Union supporting Ukraine. He stated that Slovakia lost 1 billion euros due to the rise in gas prices because of Ukrainians, and an additional 500 million euros that Bratislava received from the transit of Russian gas to the EU. Fico also claimed that Kyiv is responsible for the EU losing an additional 70 billion euros.

Moreover, the Prime Minister of Slovakia mentioned that during his recent visit to Moscow, he reached an agreement with the Russian Federation regarding gas supplies. According to him, the goal is to secure fuel for at least household consumers, which he has achieved. However, he did not disclose details of the cooperation, such as the volumes involved or the price.

Nevertheless, threats against Ukraine have been made, but how realistic are they and what could they mean for both countries?

Ukraine without energy supply and humanitarian aid?

Here, it is worth acknowledging the Poles; immediately after Fico's threats, Poland's Minister of Climate and Environment, Paulina Hennig-Kloska, expressed her country's readiness to supply more electricity to Ukraine.

"Our operator is ready; the question is whether Ukraine will want to use it or will be forced to do so. Fico's behavior is directed against Europe," said Hennig-Kloska.

This means that Fico's threat will not be effective, and ultimately Slovakia will lose more than Ukraine, believes the political analyst.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal also noted that there is no threat of reducing or limiting electricity imports from Europe to Ukraine due to the statements made by the Prime Minister of Slovakia.

"The Slovak energy grid is part of the unified European network. Even if they can technically stop supplies for a short period for repairs, the volume of electricity will be redistributed among other supplier countries according to the rules of the single market. Poland and our other neighbors are ready to help if necessary," Shmyhal stated during a government meeting on Friday.

"As for humanitarian aid for Ukrainian refugees, Slovakia may reduce the volume of support. However, such steps are not unique — other European countries are also adjusting their aid programs, but they are doing so not as an ultimatum, but as part of an overall strategy for integrating refugees or their return to Ukraine. Furthermore, if the war ends in 2025, many countries will reduce their level of support, so this is a matter that concerns not only Slovakia," continued Reiterovich.

Blocking Ukraine's EU accession

Among all of Fico's threats, the most serious one is the potential blocking of Ukrainian initiatives related to the processes of Euro-integration.

"Slovakia can create certain difficulties if it raises obstacles for Ukraine on its path to Euro-integration. The nuance is that if these are political nitpicks, when they cling to some issues without arguments and block Ukraine's path to the European Union, Slovakia will face problems at the EU level. Unlike the Hungarians, we do not have such issues with the Slovaks concerning the protection of national minorities," said the political analyst.

Here, an important clarification arises: what else could they cling to? Ukraine does not significantly intersect with Slovakia in markets or other important matters within the EU, so they are unlikely to be able to use this mechanism to slow down Ukraine, but Bratislava can still create difficulties for Kyiv, as the expert suggests.

"The only lever that Slovakia has is that the decision on EU accession is made by all countries. If one country does not support it, the country does not join the EU. But I believe that by the time EU countries vote on Ukraine's integration, Fico will no longer be in power. Therefore, these statements are more attempts to blackmail and extract preferences for himself. I wouldn't be surprised if he approaches the European Commission asking for concessions, saying, 'It didn't work out with Ukraine, but help me out,'” continued Reiterovich.

Fico's threats to Ukraine — an example for other countries?

Theoretically, after Kyiv ceased the transit of Russian gas, countries like Hungary or Austria could resort to threats or blackmail, but unlike Slovakia, they were prepared for such a scenario and took Ukraine's decision seriously.

"These countries stated that Ukraine warned them, and there are no questions about such a decision. The essence is different: if the European Commission had approached Kyiv and said that we must ensure the transit of gas, we would have found ourselves in a difficult situation, but the European Commission did not make such a statement. It said that this is a normal situation, Ukraine has the right to stop the transit of Russian gas, and the agreement expires in 2024. But Fico thought that Ukraine would not take such a step, and that the European Commission would support Slovakia, but he miscalculated," said the political analyst.

According to Igor Reiterovich, all these threats from the Prime Minister of Slovakia resemble the saying: "to annoy my mother, I won't wear a hat and will freeze my ears."

Recall that at the beginning of summer, a significant increase in electricity tariffs for the population is expected in Ukraine. The cost may rise from the current 4.32 UAH to 6.7 UAH per 1 kWh.