Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to uphold his maximalist pre-war demands for isolating Ukraine and weakening NATO during any potential negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in an analytical report dated January 11.
ISW cites information from a Financial Times (FT) publication on January 10, referencing a former high-ranking Kremlin official and another source who discussed this topic with Putin. FT claims that during any such negotiations, Putin will insist on his pre-war demands to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and to compel NATO to withdraw troops from Eastern Europe, "changing the rules" of the international system to ensure "no threats to Russia," reminiscent of the ultimatum he presented to the United States in December 2021, just before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
"Putin's demands, presented in December 2021, significantly extend beyond Ukraine and aim to roll NATO back," the report states, with analysts suggesting that the Kremlin will likely attempt to manipulate Western leaders into agreeing to maximalist demands that would weaken NATO under the guise of a "compromise" in any future peace negotiations regarding the war in Ukraine.
"Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed on January 10 that the Kremlin is ready to negotiate with Trump without any 'preconditions,' but ISW continues to believe that no negotiations will lead to a meaningful or sustainable peace as long as Putin remains committed to his pre-war demands for Ukraine’s complete capitulation and the weakening of NATO," ISW concludes.
Source: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-11-2025