Russia aims to replicate the 2022 scenario: what’s happening in Kharkiv region and which cities are at risk?

In the Kharkiv region, fortification structures and defensive fortifications around Balakliia and Izium are being constructed. According to the head of the OVA, Oleg Synegubov, these activities are being carried out to account for possible changes in the front line and the priorities of the enemy in certain areas.

He emphasized that the construction of fortifications is part of planned measures aimed at strengthening the region's defense capabilities.

"The next step is the construction of fortification structures, which is the circular defense of Balakliia and Izium. I cannot communicate at what stage, so to speak — the administration is fulfilling the tasks assigned to it. However, of course, part of the work is being carried out by the military themselves. I will only say that the work is proceeding according to plan and is fully controlled by our military," — stated Oleg Synegubov.

Circular Defense of Balakliia and Izium: Russia Aims to Recreate Events of 2022

"If they have started building such structures, it means there is a possibility that Russian troops may begin an offensive in these areas. However, it would have been better to start by establishing defenses along the line of contact behind our troops, so that if there is an escalation of hostilities, the military would have a place to fall back to more advantageous and fortified positions," — said Zhdanov.

"I want to believe that these structures are being built based on certain analytical conclusions, forecasts from intelligence about where the Russians might move. We need these structures; it's an investment in the future. It's better to have them than to construct them in an emergency mode at the last moment," — explained the analyst.

When asked why the fortifications are being built in Balakliia and Izium, which are located about 50 kilometers south of the line of contact, rather than, for example, in Pechenihy, which is closer to Kharkiv, Stupak noted that there is a tendency to "build where we want, not where it's necessary."

"The military has emphasized many times that we should not build in the fields. Yet, in some locations in the fields, fortifications are being constructed because there is a budget," — noted Stupak.

According to him, there may be an analysis of possible movements of the Russians, and the terrain plays a significant role. In particular, there might be a shorter distance, but it's swampy. Therefore, it is better to cover a longer distance but with a paved road and railway. Such factors are also considered when constructing fortification structures.

Military analyst Dmitry Snegirev is convinced that the occupiers are trying to recreate the events of 2022, specifically the formation of a strike group that was conditionally called "Izium Group."

Thus, the enemy plans to cross the Oskol River and potentially advance toward Izium. However, the main goal of the occupiers is not to push deeper into the Kharkiv region but to move along the river towards the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.

"The strategic plans of the occupiers involve reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk region. Currently, the largest industrial cities of the Donetsk region are under the control of the Defense Forces," — explained the expert.

He noted that engineering and fortification structures are being built considering possible challenges. However, Snegirev pointed out that these plans of the Russian Armed Forces were known more than six months ago, so he finds it unclear why Synegubov is announcing intentions to construct engineering and fortification structures only after the escalation of hostilities in this sector of the front.

"Why such an escalation in this direction? There is a short logistical shoulder for the occupiers, the possibility of supplying ammunition, personnel, and equipment due to the short distances from both Russia and the occupied territories of Luhansk region. Also, one of the most combat-ready units of the Russian army is concentrated in this direction," — emphasized Dmitry Snegirev.

Priority Targets for Russia in the Kharkiv Region

Oleg Zhdanov explained that in the Kharkiv direction, the Russians want to create a foothold for capturing Kupiansk, as there is a railway there, and to establish a buffer zone to ensure the safety of the administrative borders in the Luhansk region. In his opinion, the enemy wants to make the left bank of the Oskol River a natural barrier, similar to the Dnieper River in the Kherson region.

Stupak also believes that Kupiansk is a priority for the Russians, particularly since it is already 50% encircled. In his view, the occupiers want to retake the city, which would be an ideal scenario for Russian propaganda. The enemy also needs Kupiansk-Uzlovoy due to the railway lines. Ukraine and Russia share the same Soviet gauge. This facilitates logistics.

"For example, the Russians captured Donetsk. Literally a couple of hours later, trains from Russia are heading to Donetsk, then towards the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions, and Kherson, because you only need to switch the tracks. If we had a European gauge, they would have struggled to supply, using only trucks," — explained the military analyst.

He noted that the European gauge is 10 centimeters narrower, which is critical. As a result, the enemy would not be able to transport ammunition, tanks, etc., by rail; they would have to do so by road or on tracks.

Snegirev is convinced that Synegubov should be concerned not just about Balakliia and Izium, but also about Kupiansk-Uzlovoy, which is in the enemy's plans as a strategic transport hub. In particular, it serves not only as a road hub but also as a railway hub. In a negative scenario for the Defense Forces, this would provide the Russians with an opportunity to improve their logistics through the railway's capacity.

Recall that on December 18, the commander of the "Achilles" battalion of the 92nd separate assault brigade named after the Cossack Ataman Ivan Syroko, Yuriy Fedorенко, reported that in the Kharkiv direction, Russian saboteurs were dressing in Ukrainian military uniforms. Specifically, to reach the positions of the Defense Forces.

On December 15, DeepState analysts reported that the Defense Forces pushed the enemy south of Hlushkivka in the Kharkiv region and secured their positions. The General Staff reported that the Russians attempted to pressure Ukrainian units in the direction of Vysoka Yaruga, in Volchansk, and in the area of Tikhiy.