The Russian Federation is continuing to ramp up the production of "Shahed" drones ahead of the winter campaign against Ukraine for the 2024-2025 period, despite sanctions and technical limitations, as stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
"The Russian army is likely to keep adapting its strike strategies to damage Ukraine's critical infrastructure while simultaneously increasing the production of "Shahed" drones. The signing of a strategic partnership agreement between Russia and Iran in January 2025 may facilitate this process," the researchers noted.
According to analysts citing Ukrainian intelligence, a Russian factory in the special economic zone of "Alabuga" in the Republic of Tatarstan manufactured 5,760 "Shahed" drones from January to September 2024. This is double the amount produced in 2023. According to leaked documents, the facility has already signed an agreement to produce 6,000 drones by September 2025.
Additionally, it has been reported that Russia is actively developing low-tech decoy drones similar to the "Shahed," which are used to overcome Ukraine's air defense systems. Up to 10,000 such decoys are planned for production by the end of 2024, nearly doubling the number of strike drones.
The report highlights that Russians have constructed two new workshops at the Alabuga factory and installed protective nets against drones over the buildings. To enhance logistics, they have created a railway station with direct communication between Russia and China, through which necessary components for drone production are supplied.
The report also states that Russia is facing constraints in supplying factories with quality components due to Western sanctions. Consequently, they are forced to use low-quality engines produced in China. At the same time, Ukrainian forces are effectively countering "Shahed" strikes thanks to innovations in electronic warfare.