Is a "Yalta-2" possible? How will Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping divide the world?

80 years ago, a meeting of the leaders of the USA, the USSR, and the United Kingdom marked the post-war division of the world. The defeated Germany was split into two parts: the pro-Western Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) and the pro-Soviet German Democratic Republic (GDR). Additionally, Russia established control over Eastern Europe, acquiring Kaliningrad and Sakhalin. Meanwhile, Britain gained control and the right to manage the situation in Greece.

Yalta and the Present: What Parallels Can Be Drawn

The Yalta Conference still serves as a symbol of the end of World War II, even though the war did not officially conclude for several more months, with the final conference eventually taking place in Potsdam. In the context of the current situation, certain analogies can be made. In particular, The Independent, citing informed sources, reports that Donald Trump aims to conclude the war in the spring, under conditions favorable to Ukraine.

"Concerns that the US president might weaken support for Kyiv or make unfavorable compromises are misguided. Trump is taking the issue of resolving the war seriously, and it is expected that he will work closely with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, with an official meeting between the leaders potentially occurring in the coming weeks," the publication states. At the same time, the newspaper adds that Trump supports spheres of influence, as evidenced by his statements regarding Greenland, Panama, Canada, and so on.

So, is a hypothetical "Yalta-2" possible under the current conditions?

Trump's Positions in Negotiations with Beijing and Moscow

According to an expert, many of Trump's statements regarding geopolitical intentions leave a wide scope for interpretation. "Perhaps the strategy of Trump's team is to let everyone draw their own conclusions, constantly fearing the hyperactivity of the old-new US president and his endless statements. However, there are no grounds for a 'Yalta-2.' What percentage of the global division of labor does Russia occupy today? 1-1.5%. That's laughable. The situation with China is a bit more complex, as it involves around 40 percent. Yes, that's substantial, but China, at least verbally, positions itself as Trump's opponent and is not currently looking to share the world with anyone. Moreover, the Chinese are not particularly keen on such redistribution, as it also entails responsibilities that the PRC prefers to avoid, especially when it can leverage soft power or trade," notes Igor Semivolos, adding that Trump speaks to both Russia and China from the standpoint of: 'Let's see how I can bend you to my will.'

Given the above, the expert predicts that no serious agreements will be made with Trump at this moment, as no one knows "which foot the US president will get out of bed on tomorrow."

How and Why Trump's Policy Frightens Xi Jinping and Putin

The format in which the world is divided into spheres of influence, where each party has complete freedom to act as it sees fit, is, according to the political scientist, currently de facto unrealistic. "When the Yalta negotiations took place in 1945, European countries were extremely dependent on the United States because the war was still ongoing. It’s clear that some dependency still exists, but first, NATO is in place, and second, the subjectivity of the EU, and therefore the European countries, is significantly higher."

Within this context, Igor Reiterovich believes that "Yalta-2," as Putin envisions it, is impossible in principle. At the same time, the expert suggests the formation of a new architecture of global security dominated by certain powers, but with a significant role for smaller countries. However, this kind of global "construction," the expert emphasizes, will take a considerable amount of time.

Currently, Moscow and Beijing, notes Igor Reiterovich, are closely observing President Trump and concluding that the Republican may speak loudly and pompously about democracy while sometimes resorting to "not very democratic methods." "After all, the controversial approaches of the 47th president of the United States regarding the situation in North and Central America are standard Trump-style tactics to raise stakes in order to negotiate the most favorable conditions for himself with minimal investment," the political scientist remarks.

Furthermore, the expert concludes that Donald Trump, by demonstrating a kind of chaos on the foreign policy stage, "creates a particular problem for dictatorial regimes": "Russia and China have always successfully exploited the predictability of democratic countries. However, Trump, by asserting that he is the leader of the largest democracy, at least in terms of institutional structure, simultaneously hints to dictatorships that he may sometimes act using their methods."

This style of Trump’s, according to Igor Reiterovich, "greatly unsettles the Chinese and Russians," who, seeing the current US president's foreign policy as a serious challenge, fear swift agreements of any kind with him. As noted by Bloomberg's editor-in-chief Timothy O'Brien, it remains unclear whether Trump genuinely believes in a world with dominant spheres of influence: the US in the Western Hemisphere, China in the Asia-Pacific region, and Russia in Europe. "This is the logic of the isolationist wing of the Republicans, and it is a recipe for chaotic restructuring of global relations," O'Brien emphasizes, identifying Trump's desire to circumvent opponents in search of diplomatic agreements for their own sake as a key risk.

Trump Takes Action, Denmark Resists

But while experts discuss the impossibility of Trump's actions, the US president is indeed acting — and very firmly. Immediately after his inauguration, he called Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and demanded that she sell Greenland.

High-ranking European officials stated that the conversation went very poorly. Trump was reportedly aggressive and confrontational after the Danish prime minister stated that the island was not for sale.

"He was very firm. It was a cold shower. It was hard to take this seriously before. But I think it is serious and potentially very dangerous," one source told the publication.

A week later, the Danish government allocated 14.6 billion kroner (about 2.04 billion dollars) for the defense of Greenland. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen requested support from European leaders in countering the aggressive rhetoric of the US president.

And support is forthcoming — French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated that France discussed with Denmark the possibility of sending troops to Greenland in response to repeated threats from President Donald Trump to annex Danish territory, as reported by Politico.

And who can say that this doesn’t resemble a new division of the world?