Almost half (47%) of Ukrainians believe that Russia has enough resources for a prolonged war against Ukraine, while 46% believe, on the contrary, that Russia is exhausting its resource supplies, according to survey results conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) from September 20 to October 3.
Over the past year, the situation has changed little; however, between February and October 2023, the percentage of those who believed that Russia still maintains a significant reserve of resources and can continue the war against Ukraine for many years increased from 22% to 49%. Conversely, the share of those who think that Russia is depleting its resources and that the war could end under acceptable terms for Ukraine decreased from 67% to 43%.
Both viewpoints are significantly represented across all macro-regions, although in the southern and eastern parts of the country, there are slightly more individuals who believe in Russia's capabilities. Nevertheless, in both macro-regions, particularly in the east, perceptions have improved over the past year, with fewer people believing in the aggressor's limitless resources.
Among those who believe in Russia's unlimited resources, fewer think that Ukraine can achieve success in the war with appropriate Western support—71% compared to 92% among those who believe that Russia is exhausting its resources.
The study was conducted using the CATI interview method based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers in all government-controlled regions of Ukraine, involving 989 respondents aged 18 and older. Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error for such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and a design effect of 1.3) did not exceed 4.1% for indicators close to 50% and 1.8% for indicators close to 5%. In the context of war, a certain systematic bias is introduced, but the results still maintain high representativeness.