Александр Карпюк сообщил Фокусу о начале "супер-АТО" и том, что произойдет после "заморозки" конфликта.

The question of a potential "freeze" of the war along the front line, which is currently being actively discussed by international partners, raises numerous concerns regarding the real consequences of such a scenario for Ukraine.

According to Ukrainian Armed Forces serviceman and aerial reconnaissance specialist Alexander Karpyuk, call sign Serg Marco, a "freeze" of the war would lead to a situation similar to the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO). It would not bring stability but rather create a new level of conflict — a "super ATO."

The military reminds us that during that time, there was a ceasefire regime, restrictions on calibers — a ban on the use of heavy artillery, with only 82-mm mortars allowed. In these conditions, snipers and sabotage-reconnaissance groups worked to improve tactical positions, eliminating the enemy, breaching defense lines, and strengthening their positions. Now, with advancements in technology, the situation has changed: a single sniper cannot compete with a drone operator.

"I believe that even if the conflict is temporarily frozen, we will still face numerous skirmishes. The Russians, like us, do not trust each other. Everyone who experienced the ATO remembers that neither side left itself a chance for a 'respite' or peace. The same will happen now. More aggressively inclined fighters, armed with new technologies, will seek to eliminate enemy personnel," — says the aerial reconnaissance specialist.

Alexander Karpyuk does not believe in the success of peacekeeping missions, such as those from France or other nations attempting to mediate in this war. If the warring parties pull back a few kilometers, as planned, neither side will adhere to this regime. The gray zone may become just a place for breaks, but not for stability. There are doubts that a prolonged ceasefire will occur — one spark is enough to ignite a new phase of hostilities.

In any case, the end of the war must occur through diplomatic means.

"Currently, around 600,000 Russian troops are fighting, but this is not the entirety of Russia's army; it is specifically the strike group. Thus, they hold a certain advantage in numbers, although the situation is complicated by the presence of their rear units within Russia, which also have an influence. Technically, it is impossible to eliminate 600,000 Russians, considering the current mobilization and the amount of weaponry. They, in turn, are also unable to fulfill strategic tasks. For example, they cannot capture Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, or other cities, which means that even tactical missions become challenging for them," — explains the military personnel.

So, when both sides cannot achieve a military victory, the only option left is the diplomatic route. Maintaining the status quo, negotiations, and seeking solutions through diplomacy is what Karpyuk believes is necessary.

"But my task, as a soldier, is to eliminate the enemy. And I do what I am told. What they think at the strategic level is a question for politicians. I believe that before 2023, the situation was more favorable for operational breakthroughs when we had the necessary amount of weapons and resources. But now, after three years of war, it is much more difficult to achieve this. Russia had time to restore its forces, and we were not given the opportunity to achieve a definitive victory at the beginning of the conflict," — concludes the aerial reconnaissance specialist.

"The most challenging winter, the defense of Pokrovsk, and the threat to Dnipro" — the complete interview with aerial reconnaissance specialist Alexander Karpyuk.

It is worth noting that according to estimates from Washington analysts, Russian troops will need to conduct military operations for at least another 83 years to capture the remaining 80% of Ukrainian territory.